Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[beatingrillz]

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.

They won't be dogs at EU it will be a Pick'em game.

[valleychamp]

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.

...and they have a 2 game lead on everyone else.

[MVCfans]

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.

...and they have a 2 game lead on everyone else.

I think Illinois State's loss tonight was critical for MSU to get the 3 seed.

[Hacksaw]

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.

Just to clarify, they will finish 3rd in 68% of all possible outcomes. After tomorrow's games, I will again supply the chart which summarizes all possible outcomes. Also, I will supply a chart with the seed probabilities allowing weighting for potential winners (e.g. currently Creighton has an 85% chance to beat Evansville per realtimerpi.com).

[MSUDuo]

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.

...and they have a 2 game lead on everyone else.

One game. Hopefully two games after tonight

[Duan]

Is it possible for Creighton to still be a three seed?

[MVCfans]

Is it possible for Creighton to still be a three seed?

3% chance statistically. If CU loses two and MSU wins out, the Bears would hold the tiebreaker.

link: wp/2012/02/14/updated-arch-madness-seed-probabilities-feb-14/

[MVCfans]

Hacksaw is killing it - here are the updated standings and probabilities after the games tonight:

link: wp/2012/02/15/updated-mvc-standings-and-seeding-probabilities/

[pafan]

Percentage of scenarios that result in playing on Thursday shows three very clear groups.

A reminder: this does not take into account strength of remaining schedule, so it is improper to say this is the "chance" of playing on Thursday.

WSU, CU: 0%
MSU: 3.61%
====
ILS: 20.7%
EVAN: 23.2%
DU: 24.3%
====
UNI: 61.6%
INS: 66.5%
BU, SIU: 100%

[Duan]

I don't really like how this is sorting out for Creighton. There is a strong possibility of CU have 3 of the 4 teams that beat them on their side of the bracket (MSU, UNI, and Evansville). ILST and UNI both losing this week is not what I wanted to see. However, I think that the 7 seed is going to be pretty tough no matter what (or at least compared to the 7 seed in previous years).