by PantherU » May 5th, 2017, 5:17 pm
I will say this: I believe the MVC would be stupid to not invite both Murray State and Valparaiso. If the MVC's goal is to solidify its status as the best mid-major conference in the country (I'm not counting some conferences you guys may consider mid-major, and let's not get into that), it leaves itself open to challenge from other conferences. The Horizon in its best years post-Butler is a decent challenger, and the OVC in its best years doesn't come close, but taking the best program from the OVC and one of the best programs from the HL is a way to knock both of those conferences off from mounting a challenge.
Only invite one, and it becomes murky.
What if the MVC only takes Murray State? The Horizon League has a slew of programs on the upswing, with only one (Cleveland State) that looks headed for an extended period of disarray. Two or three years with 4-5 strong Horizon League teams could challenge a Missouri Valley that may not come close to approaching the strength it had pre-2012.
What if the MVC only takes Valparaiso? The Horizon League likely only needs a couple phone calls to pull in Murray State. Maybe Belmont considers a Horizon League invitation more strongly if Murray State is going along - the distance is similar, but travel to HL schools isn't as expensive when most of them are close by inexpensive commercial airports.
That's obviously a long shot to get Belmont, but Murray State desperately wants out of the OVC and there's someone who would be willing to be a travel partner for the Racers in moving to the HL. Say the MVC notifies Murray State, Milwaukee and Omaha they're going with Valparaiso. The HL is very good at attracting new members (Valpo, Oakland and NKU have all been great adds) so it's not a stretch to think they could replace Valpo with Murray State, a decent travel partner and Robert Morris to go to 12 teams. Say they grab Lipscomb in Nashville - gives Murray State a travel partner, and Lipscomb's travel budget may actually go down in the Horizon League. A Horizon League replacing Valpo with Murray State, Lipscomb and Robert Morris could be a challenger in some years. Maybe Eastern Michigan finally goes through with cutting its football program, instead putting immense resources toward college basketball. They have a decent enough arena, that solidifies Detroit as the center of the conference and all of a sudden Motor City Madness takes off just like Arch Madness did. A 12-team Horizon League could toss away the round robin in favor of a 16-or-18-game schedule that protects the top teams from playing two conference games against the projected bottom teams in the conference.
Hell, if the MVC waits long enough between notifying the other 3 that it's going with Valpo, doesn't the Horizon League go to Murray State and Belmont, offer up a possible multi-bid league, then go back to Valparaiso before the announcement and show them not only could they be making a lateral move, they might be leaving for a worse conference.
There's certainly a long shot to many of these scenarios - definitely anything with Belmont, which looks like they may be content in their little bus league they can grab by the gonads. But the point I'm trying to make to you guys is that the MVC no longer has the benefit of being 100% the big dog in the mid-major yard, so you don't have the luxury of waiting.
Having been a part of an odd-number conference a couple different times, I can tell you that scheduling for 9 was an absolute nightmare so 11 could be an abject disaster. But going to 11 might be preferable to going to 10 and leaving the conference wide open to challenge from the Horizon League, the smaller-but-more-solid Summit League, or another conference.
TL;DR - if the MVC's long-term plans include both Valpo and Murray State, take them both right now, and avoid the challenge from other Midwestern conferences that are positioned to give the MVC headaches.
Notice that I didn't bring up adding my program, Milwaukee, in there. You guys know where I stand there, I just didn't want the message to get drowned out by the "he's just a Milwaukee guy" response. Even though I do feel the MVC's best move is a 12-team conference with Murray State, Valparaiso and Milwaukee, I did want to put forward the unbiased belief that the MVC should take Murray State and Valparaiso together if they so wish. Crusaders and Racers fans are good people who don't need to be living under the veil of uncertainty. MVC fans deserve closure on this as well.