Jerry Palm predicts MVC as a one bid league

by **Turner** » October 12th, 2012, 11:50 am

I know it means nothing right now but it still pisses me off that a national guy thinks we are a one bid league. He has CU as a 4 seed and no mention of anyone else.

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by **DoubleJayAlum** » October 12th, 2012, 12:08 pm

Turner wrote:I know it means nothing right now but it still pisses me off that a national guy thinks we are a one bid league. He has CU as a 4 seed and no mention of anyone else.

Its not out of the realm of possibility. WSU lost a lot, IlSU lost its budding star of a PG plus its HC, UNI was .500 in conference last season. I'm not totally shocked an outsider might come to such a conclusion. I hope he's wrong, but it isn't like last year where the MVC has two teams getting a bunch of discussion preseason.

by **TheDrake** » October 12th, 2012, 12:40 pm

The valley should get at least two teams(Creighton + ISU red) into the dance this year and will hopefully will get three.

by **TheAsianSensation** » October 12th, 2012, 1:10 pm

Remember, mid major at large bids are always undersold.

It's safe to assume a 2nd for the MVC is coming, but you can't identify a single one of them as likely. If WSU has a 40% chance, ISU has a 40% chance, UNI has a 20% chance of an at-large bid, and 2 other teams have a 10% chance...then the MVC is a 75% favorite to get an at-large bid but you wouldn't project a single one of them to actually get one.

In other words, no need to get riled over any particular projection.

by **Ace Dad** » October 12th, 2012, 9:16 pm

It is a fair prediction for now. We need for a couple of our teams to win 80% of their nonconference games and to knock off a couple of big boys and then we deserve some attention for a 2nd team. Those same two teams who do well in nonconference than need to finish 2nd or 3rd in the Valley and get to the tournament championship game.

by **MoBraves** » October 15th, 2012, 11:36 am

TheDrake wrote:The valley should get at least two teams(Creighton + ISU red) into the dance this year and will hopefully will get three.

I remember this kind of talk last season, and I believe our chances were better last season that this one.
Nonetheless, I would not be shocked to see 3 Valley teams get into the Big Dance, but the odds of 1 getting in are better than 3 IMO.
ISU - red only finished .500 last year and really came on strong toward the end...reminds me of a Sycamore team that did similar things the year before. Many expected the Sycs to finish 3 or 4 last year (which usually equates to about an 11-7 league record) but they came up short. I don't see ISU-red falling off like the Sycs did, but I they need to prove they can win the big games before I'm convinced they are an NCAA tourney team.

by **Red** » October 15th, 2012, 11:39 am

I really think we are a multi bid league. Hopefully ISU is one of them.

by **glm38** » October 15th, 2012, 5:02 pm

I think UNI is good enough to make the big dance but I'm kind of worried about their non con schedule because its so tough. They kind of need to win a couple of those games. They could easily lose all those tough games yet play really well in the conference and have the selection committee leave them out.

by **valleychamp** » October 16th, 2012, 4:21 am

glm38 wrote:I think UNI is good enough to make the big dance but I'm kind of worried about their non con schedule because its so tough. They kind of need to win a couple of those games. They could easily lose all those tough games yet play really well in the conference and have the selection committee leave them out.

Could be. But on the other hand, I would much rather have a schedule like this than a weak one. I think you have seen that more often than not, the committee will reward teams that went out and played good schedules as opposed to teams that racked up a bunch of wins playing poorer schedules.

For instance, say UNI only goes something like 7-5 in the non-conference. That's not very good on the surface, but what if UNI went 3-3 against Louisville, Iowa, UNLV, George Mason, Mizzou, and St Marys or whatever? The RPI should be through the roof, with some major resume building wins. The way I look at it is that UNI has scheduled well enough to afford a few losses and still be fine. And if they aren't able to pick up enough wins here and there throughout that schedule, they probably aren't a tournament team anyway.

by **valleychamp** » October 16th, 2012, 4:26 am

I think and hope we will have multi-bids again this year, and I truly believe we will have several NCAA caliber teams. My only worry is that the league is so strong top to bottom, that similar to last year, there is that chance that we just beat up on each other too much in league play and take each other out of contention.