So, How Good Will the MVC be this Year

by **DoubleJayAlum** » November 5th, 2012, 1:38 pm

There seems to be a great deal of derision as to how good the league will be this year. Despite the comments of a certain WSU poster that making the NCAA tournament isn't important, I think it is the best way to evaluate how strong the league is on a national level. How any bids do you think we get this year?

Personally, I think the league will be down a bit. Last year, we had two teams ranked in the top 25 at the same time for several weeks, including the final polls. If Illinois St won the conference tourney last year, there is no doubt that we would have had three bids. I just don't see that same level of strength this year.

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by **valleychamp** » November 5th, 2012, 1:49 pm

I think we get two bids no matter what, and have a shot for 3 if things fall right. League has been fairly young the past couple years (and it was still pretty good). I think a lot of talent is returning, and there are some veteran players/teams this year. Plus, it seems like (at least on paper) the scheduling is up this year for most of the league, and that is always conducive to NCAA bids.

by **Shockerfan13** » November 5th, 2012, 1:50 pm

I don't think the top of the Valley will be as strong as last year outside of Creighton. I do believe the middle of the pack will be stronger this year though. There won't be as much of a gap from 2nd to 3rd...etc. Unfortunately that doesn't help get at large bids unless another team besides Creighton can seperate itself from the rest of the pack again.

I say we get 2, only because I think Creighton wins the league regular season and earns an at-large but stumbles in St Louis as there are 3-4 other teams that could definately challenge them in the tourney.

by **TheAsianSensation** » November 5th, 2012, 2:00 pm

As I said before, I wouldn't make any non-Creighton entity a favorite to make the NCAA tournament, but the combined chances of 3 or 4 of the teams make it a mathematical certainty we'll get a 2nd team in.

by **valleychamp** » November 5th, 2012, 2:02 pm

6 of the 10 teams in the Valley return 4 starters and 33 of 50 starters return, most since 06-07.

by **Khan4Cats** » November 5th, 2012, 2:26 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:As I said before, I wouldn't make any non-Creighton entity a favorite to make the NCAA tournament, but the combined chances of 3 or 4 of the teams make it a mathematical certainty we'll get a 2nd team in.

I tend to agree with this. I think Creighton, barring a stumble in what is not a particularly strong non-conference schedule or underperforming in Valley play, is odds-on favorites to make the field.

Other schools have a chance to make some noise in the non-conference and get in at-large discussion but it all depends on what happens in conference after that. Beat the tar out of each other and have 6 teams at 9-9 or some other cluster behind the Jays and we are a two-bid league only if someone other than CU wins in STL. If a couple of teams can separate from the pack and hang with CU, then we could get more. I just don't see a lot of strong enough schedules that could build a bubble-proof resume in the non-conference to emerge from a pack situation like we had last year.

by **CBB_Fan** » November 5th, 2012, 2:55 pm

I think Creighton, if they do not have an unexpected stumble, will make the tournament. I think UNI will have a good chance to make it, if they capitalize on their impressive OOC schedule.

Illinois State and Wichita State "might" make it, but they have to really do well to make up for an unimpressive schedule. I think that the Valley is a 2-bid league if Creighton or UNI wins the tournament, 3-bids if someone else does.

If that seems unlikely, remember that last year the Valley was one point from being a three bid league, and many teams return a fair amount of starters or minutes. Their are a few big questions though:

"Will anyone important get injured?" - A lot of the conference relies on just a few players for production, so injuries could drastically change the conference's prospects.

"Will Creighton regress?" - They were one of the most efficient teams in the country last year, but statistically they are more likely to regress back to the mean than improve (according to KenPom anyway). If they stumble, the entire league will suffer from the RPI downgrade.

"How bad will the bottom be?" - It is no secret that the bottom of the Valley is in a rough place. Having multiple teams over 200 in the standings will KILL the RPI SoS of the Valley, and make it hard for those not named UNI to get serious looks even with a good record.

"Everything about Wichita State" - The biggest mystery in the Valley will be Wichita State. Talk to some of our fans, and we not only reloaded, we've improved. Other fans and national critics say that a team that loses all of its starters and most of its production will likely fall. Even if Wichita State has reloaded, the big question is whether or not they "get it" until later in the season. If they are good early in the season, it will help the Valley and perhaps make it a 3-bid league.

"How much does the coaching change affect Illinois State?" - Illinois State arguably should be the #2 team in the Valley coming into the season (though UNI will likely be better in the RPI by the end of the year). After all, they beat Wichita State in the MVC tournament and barely lost to the eventual NIT champs. But coaching changes can have a huge affect on a program (just ask the New Orleans Saints). If the coaching change doesn't have much of an impact, look for Illinois State to start the season as strong as they ended last season and contend for an NCAA title.

"Can UNI capitalize on it's schedule?" - I've already mentioned it numerous times, but UNI did a great job scheduling for success. However, that is almost meaningless if they don't actually convert those tough games into wins. If they can pull off a win or two in the Battle4Atlantis tournament (starting against preseason #2 Louisville), or manage to take out preseason #18 UNLV, they should easily see some tournament attention. Lose all of those games, and they'll have to make a great run in the Valley.

by **shoxrox** » November 5th, 2012, 3:19 pm

I don't understand the first option: We're a one bid league again. That kind of implies that we were a one bid league last year, which we weren't.

I think several good points have already been made in this thread, most importantly being certain teams cashing in on their best non-con opponents on their schedules. It's great to make the Battle 4 Atlantis, but going 0-3 in it wouldn't help much. The same goes for everybody else.

I voted 2 teams no matter what. Creighton is a virtual lock. UNI appears to be best positioned for an at-large thanks to their SOS. Again they have to cash in on it though.

The remaining teams don't have the SOS to make at-large cases this year unless they run up 25-5 records, which I don't see WSU or ILSU doing.

by **DoubleJayAlum** » November 5th, 2012, 3:27 pm

shoxrox wrote:I don't understand the first option: We're a one bid league again. That kind of implies that we were a one bid league last year, which we weren't.

Last year was the first year since 2007 that the MVC got more than one bid. I think 'again' still qualifies under those facts, but if you want to pretend that the words "back to" appear between "We're" and "a," knock yourself out.

by **LMS** » November 5th, 2012, 5:08 pm

At least two. Three is possible but will require a little luck.