I think the MVC lost a tournament bid tonight

[musiccitybulldog]

I think Kahn4cats is on the money with his analysis. The only thing I would add is I think playing better OOC schedules/OOC tournaments overall, being on TV(ESPN-ESPN3-CBS) more in the early season, Creighton and UNI having success in winning more than first round NCAA games recently. Attendance at games, especially Creighton and Wichita. Plus, other Valley teams participating and winning in other post season tournaments. I think this exposure adds up in overall perception of the Valley.

Usually I would think for an at large in the MVC you would have to have an almost perfect conference season and have none/to almost no OOC losses. But I think that is changing with the above mentioned recent history, and NCAA veiwers want to see competitive games.

Many may disagree with me but I think this year, MVC teams will beat up on each other at the top of the conference, but I think the MVC will still get 3-4 teams in. I think we will see less multiple bids from the big conferences and more multiple bids from the mid-majors. This is far from my usual prediction, so possibly my insticts will match others perceptions. Just my opinion, right or wrong.
If I was the MVC's marketing/promotions person, I would really be promoting the parity and competition level with in the conference. Make the competition level a real selling point.

But I do understand where others are coming from, with raw RPI weighting data as the decision factor.

[Jet915]

I see 2 at larges right now with a third if someone other than WSU or CU win in St. Louis.

[Wufan]

Creighton and UNI having success in winning more than first round NCAA games recently.

Creighton has never won more than a first round game, however they are a perennial tournament team and have been in the NCAA many more times than any other MVC school.

[Wufan]

Many may disagree with me but I think this year, MVC teams will beat up on each other at the top of the conference, but I think the MVC will still get 3-4 teams in.

But I do understand where others are coming from, with raw RPI weighting data as the decision factor.

The problem with teams beating up on each other at the top is that it brings down the top teams. Yes, teams get bids, not conferences, but when 60% of your games are against other MVC teams, it is difficult for multiple teams to get all the wins they need without bumping another team out of the bubble.

While snaggletooth's analysis was pretty spot on, there are a couple of issues with it when discussing bids. One is that a mid-30's RPI doesn't guarantee you a spot unless you have "good wins" and no "bad losses."

Drake, UNI, Illinois State, Indiana State:
All of the above have no bad losses and multiple good losses. They need good wins and have limited remaining opportunities. If they don't light it up in the remaining non-con games, then their success is dependent on the fall of WSU and/or Creighton. In order to get more than one at-large, from the MVC, the team in the hunt (from this group) has to go undefeated in the remaining OOC and finish first or second in the conference.

Evansville:
I think the Buffalo loss for Evansville is such that they HAVE to win against Murray St and Butler and have a sensational Valley season. That would give them 1 bad loss, 2 good losses, 2 good wins in the OOC. They would then need to go 15-3 in the conference with at least two wins against WSU and Creighton (assuming they are good wins) and only lose one more to the rest of the field, but can't be Bradley, SIU, or Mo St.

Bradley, SIU, MSU
MSU is out barring an undefeated season the rest of the way. Bradley and SIU can have one or two more losses.

[musiccitybulldog]

Very good analysis WU and Snaggletooth's was very insightful also.

[ACECARD]

UNI and Evansville still have a couple of games to make up some ground, but to this point they haven't proven they are capable of grabbing a signature win, and even if they do, their resume will be suspect against other bubble teams. Illinois State and Drake might have the potential to make a significant splash in the MVC, but it might be at the expense of WSU and Creighton. My feeling is that WSU and CU are the only teams that have a legit at large chance, but Drake, Evansville, Ill St, and UNI will be looking to make a splash. To do so, they will have to separate themselves in conference with wins over each other and Creighton/WSU. The Valley will eat it's young and be a two bid league.

+1 Very well said.

[Snaggletooth]

While snaggletooth's analysis was pretty spot on, there are a couple of issues with it when discussing bids. One is that a mid-30's RPI doesn't guarantee you a spot unless you have "good wins" and no "bad losses."

Admittedly Mid-30's RPI is just an arbitrary RPI that I threw out and your right just having an RPI is not the only metric that gets you into the tournament. I could see Bradley having a good RPI, but not having the resume of quality wins. But we are dealing with "brushes" and not "sharpened pencils" in analyzing the situation right now so it is probably a reasonable metric since for instance all the 30's RPI team got into the tournament last year.

I think likely the Moral Victory Conference is two bids, but I could see 3 bids if things just fell right and it would take a perfect storm of events to get 4 teams in.

[Ace Dad]

Wufan, excellent analysis.

[sixth ace]

Wufan, excellent analysis.

[DoubleJayAlum]

I think you have to have the extra bid before you can lose it. I am not sure the MVC ever had it.

We really need Illinois St to beat Wyoming. The Drexel win is now very pedestrian after they lost their best player and IlSU needs a 'good' noncon win. Running the table in the noncon would be very nice too as winning at Dayton is very tough.