Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Wufan » December 17th, 2013, 7:09 am

Snaggletooth wrote:
rlh04d wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:The only way anybody can be down on him is because they have bought into the pre-season hype. If you have studied player development - the difference in performance from starter from their Junior to Senior year is generally noise. They are what they are.

Disagreed. The improvement between junior and senior year for most of WSU's JUCO players in recent years has been huge.


Actually I'm talking in Basketball as a whole from freshman to Senior progression. Admittedly, I have not looked specifically at JUCO in isolation. I do recall Joe Ragland really getting better between his Junior and Senior year, but I don't really recall anything else that earth shattering with JUCO so feel free to post some WSU comparison of JUCO promenent Junior/Senior years in the program.


Joe Ragland is probably the best example. Hall is another, as is Smith.

Junior year:

Ragland - 7 ppg, 2.8 apg, 21 mpg
Smith - 6.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 16.5 mpg
Hall - 8.4 ppg, 5.0 ppg, 22.3 mpg

Senior year:

Ragland - 13.4 ppg, 3.3 apg, 27.4 mpg
Smith - 9.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 25.4 mpg
Hall - 12.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 25.1 mpg

Smith's numbers could be attributed to his increase in minutes, but the other two made huge steps forward even when extra time on the floor is calculated.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby rlh04d » December 17th, 2013, 8:05 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:
rlh04d wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:The only way anybody can be down on him is because they have bought into the pre-season hype. If you have studied player development - the difference in performance from starter from their Junior to Senior year is generally noise. They are what they are.

Disagreed. The improvement between junior and senior year for most of WSU's JUCO players in recent years has been huge.


Actually I'm talking in Basketball as a whole from freshman to Senior progression. Admittedly, I have not looked specifically at JUCO in isolation. I do recall Joe Ragland really getting better between his Junior and Senior year, but I don't really recall anything else that earth shattering with JUCO so feel free to post some WSU comparison of JUCO promenent Junior/Senior years in the program.

You specifically said junior to senior year in your post.

I've posted a breakdown on Shockernet before about this, and I might grab the numbers later when I'm not on my ipad. But if you look at per minute numbers, nearly every senior in general has improved significantly over their junior year ... Except Orukpe. The Juco guys are even more distinct in their improvement.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Snaggletooth » December 17th, 2013, 10:59 pm

rlh04d wrote:
I've posted a breakdown on Shockernet before about this, and I might grab the numbers later when I'm not on my ipad. But if you look at per minute numbers, nearly every senior in general has improved significantly over their junior year ... Except Orukpe. The Juco guys are even more distinct in their improvement.


Just looking at Junior to Senior for major player in program, Pts/ per minute yields

Improved
Hall (JC)
D. Will
Gabe Blair
Stutz
Murray
Ragland (JC)
Ellis
Clemente (JC)
Martin
Burns
McFfall (JC)
Mack (JC)
Cousinard (very, very slight improvement)

Regressed
Ben Smith (JC)
Kyles
Griskenas (JC - coming off knee surgery senior year)
Hogg (JC)
Kampman
Howard

Stayed the Same
Orupke
Hannah (JC)
Durley
Bradley (JC)
Miller

Averages for all players in the program.

Capture.JPG
added JC for Hall and Clemente and Miller, Couz
Capture.JPG (26.18 KiB) Viewed 1613 times
Last edited by Snaggletooth on December 18th, 2013, 7:00 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby rlh04d » December 17th, 2013, 11:25 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:
rlh04d wrote:
I've posted a breakdown on Shockernet before about this, and I might grab the numbers later when I'm not on my ipad. But if you look at per minute numbers, nearly every senior in general has improved significantly over their junior year ... Except Orukpe. The Juco guys are even more distinct in their improvement.


Just looking at Junior to Senior for major player in program, Pts/ per minute yields

Improved
Hall
D. Will
Gabe Blair
Stutz
Murray
Ragland (JC)
Ellis
Clemente
Martin
Burns
McFfall (JC)
Mack (JC)

Regressed
Ben Smith (JC)
Kyles
Griskenas (JC - coming off knee surgery senior year)
Hogg (JC)
Kampman
Howard

Stayed the Same
Orupke
Hannah (JC)
Durley
Bradley (JC)

Averages for all players in the program.

Capture.JPG

Nice post.

You left JC off some of the Juco guys. Off the top of my head, Hall, Clemente, and Blair were all Juco guys.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Snaggletooth » December 17th, 2013, 11:35 pm

fixed the hall and clemente, but Blair was D1 Transfer (E. Carolina)
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Wufan » December 18th, 2013, 6:23 am

Snaggletooth wrote:fixed the hall and clemente, but Blair was D1 Transfer (E. Carolina)


Ben Smith didn't regress.

Also, Paul Miller isn't listed and he made huge improvement...Cousinard? Were these guys not imcluded or just not listed?
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Snaggletooth » December 18th, 2013, 7:08 am

Wufan wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:fixed the hall and clemente, but Blair was D1 Transfer (E. Carolina)


Ben Smith didn't regress.

Also, Paul Miller isn't listed and he made huge improvement...Cousinard? Were these guys not imcluded or just not listed?


Added those players.

Might read again - their performance has been normalized for 40 minutes. What you think as improvement is just getting more playing time but their relative contribution may not be more.

Ben Smith - yes he went from 6.7 ppg to 9.8 ppg, but his minutes went from 16.7 to 25.4. Normalized for 40 minutes dropped from 16.4 to 15.6.

If you look at point differential from year to year you will see something like the following plot (this is from a slightly different data set).

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (47.24 KiB) Viewed 1463 times


If you use a straight point differential method, then you will get a different answer
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby rlh04d » December 18th, 2013, 11:40 am

I'm glad we're using per minute numbers instead of per game, although I'd also suggest we'd have to factor in other aspects such as rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc., on a per minute basis. Figuring out how to weigh those against each other would be tough, though.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Wufan » December 18th, 2013, 12:07 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:
Wufan wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:fixed the hall and clemente, but Blair was D1 Transfer (E. Carolina)


Ben Smith didn't regress.

Also, Paul Miller isn't listed and he made huge improvement...Cousinard? Were these guys not imcluded or just not listed?


Added those players.

Might read again - their performance has been normalized for 40 minutes. What you think as improvement is just getting more playing time but their relative contribution may not be more.

Ben Smith - yes he went from 6.7 ppg to 9.8 ppg, but his minutes went from 16.7 to 25.4. Normalized for 40 minutes dropped from 16.4 to 15.6.

If you look at point differential from year to year you will see something like the following plot (this is from a slightly different data set).

Capture.JPG


If you use a straight point differential method, then you will get a different answer


Thanks for clarifying. With Smith, I had already run the numbers and considered it statistically insignificant. However, normalized over all players, I think your conclusion is accurate.
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Re: Tennessee vs. WSU at Intrust Bank Arena 1pm 12/14 ESPN2

Postby Snaggletooth » December 18th, 2013, 12:41 pm

rlh04d wrote:I'm glad we're using per minute numbers instead of per game, although I'd also suggest we'd have to factor in other aspects such as rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc., on a per minute basis. Figuring out how to weigh those against each other would be tough, though.


Yeah, I've been thinking about that because you are right - scoring is not the complete picture but it is a tougher job. I have tried it a little but have never been satisfied with my weighting factors I have came up with.
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