Aargh wrote:I'd like to comment on a coule of things I found in this thread.
FBS requires 15k average attendance, not 50k.
That's true, but I hope no one is planning on paying for a competitive FBS team (even by Sun Belt standards) with that level of attendance. With no significant TV revenue, no bowl money, and no big dollar revenue-sharing from the conference, that 50,000 number is closer to financial reality than the 15,000 number.
There are other FCS programs that are much more successful (obviously), but most are smaller schools in smaller markets that are geographically isolated from any BCS conference. NDSU is probably the most worthy program to move up of anybody, but it's not like there's any BCS conference out there that would actually want them right now.
Smaller markets? No one is going to get excited about adding the Springfield market to their TV package. Especially since there's no evidence that the Springfield market even cares about MSU FB.
First off, you're right, it's entirely speculation. I'm not convinced it's going to actually happen, but the speculation is coming from sources from the Sun Belt that tend to be rather reliable. It's not like some MSU fan just tweeted about how he overheard somebody say that the Sun Belt is a nice place to be this time of year.
In terms of attendance, you've got to start somewhere. At this point, as I said, Missouri State's attendance isn't satisfactory for the FBS, which is one reservation I have about any kind of move. However, I think Missouri State easily has the potential to quickly get to 15,000+ if there's actually a reason for people to show up. The reason I believe this is simply because of the fact that I've seen attendance numbers between 12,000 and 14,000 when everybody knew it was just going to be another losing season. Get some excitement and that will go up. Also consider that Sun Belt teams about every other season get Big XII and SEC teams to play AT their stadium. That would constitute a much larger draw than anything else. Heck, if the Bears could get a C-USA or AAC team to play at Plaster SC it would be a significant draw over any other FCS non conference opponent.
That's not to say that we'd be content at 15,000. As with anything, we would have to actually start winning to continue to build a fan base. As a realist, that seems unlikely, but as a fan I have full confidence in that happening...eventually. Once the Bears got to 15,000 average attendance we would want more. You don't build a program by sitting on your hands and hoping for 50k people to show up, though.
You're again correct that nobody is excited about adding the Springfield market. That wasn't my point, though. The point of that comment was that Missouri State makes more sense in terms of geography, school size, and market than most of the other FCS teams that are more successful. That' especially true considering I think UNI would be a great fit for the MAC, but it doesn't appear that they want to expand. Regardless of if it is Missouri State or not, the Sun Belt IS expanding, and that's a fact. The only three schools in the conversation, allegedly, are JMU, MSU, and Liberty. To add to that, according to a lot of people it's more so that the conference commissioner wants Liberty, but the presidents aren't keen on adding them. The question at this point is if it's a good idea for JMU or MSU to move up, and if one of them (or both of them) would say yes.