What's the next realignment domino to fall?

[Aargh]

I don't think Texas will leave the B12. No one wants Texas. Oklahmon, on the other hand...I could see OU and OSU bolting for the SEC. That move would seem to benefit both the schools and the SEC.

There is an indirect impact on the Valley. The AAC and MWC are in a position to just wait for the B12 to implode. Then they will pick up the remnants that don't find homes in the P4 conferences. Those were the only, although unlikely, destinations that appeared to work if WSU wanted to leave the Valley. If the B12 had picked up Cincy or Houston, WSU could have made a pitch to join the AAC, possibly even picking up football if that were a requirement.

The B12 not expanding, and appearing on the verge of collapse stabilizes the MWC and the AAC for the time being.

[uniftw]

Why would Iowa, Minny and Nebraska block Iowa State? I believe it is a Research School which meets a Big10 desired trait and is in the geographically footprint. Sure no large TV market but a couple of other boxes are checked off as well as a natural rival for the 3 schools you mentioned.

They add nothing.

No TV, no new eyeballs, no football competitiveness. Nothing.

The fact they are a natural rival is why they won't be voted for. UI is 1000000000000% against it. I can promise you Nebraksa would be as well. Minnesota and Illinois would be at least 80% against.

Biggest thing? No new TV sets.

Their AD admitted, on radio, today the only difference between Iowa State and Houston, Memphis, Tulane, etc.. is that they are already in the conference. I s*** you not, he said that over the air on radio.

UCONN and Kansas are the B10s next targets.
Iowa State knows that without UT and OU the are, at best, MWC.

[Aargh]

I keep hearing KU to the B1G, but I'm not convinced. They can deliver the Kansas City TV market for basketball and they can provide some revenue from the NCAA basketball tourney, but is that enough to dilute the revenue from football by one more league member?

KU would get a full league share for football and provide absolutely nothing toward that revenue stream. KU might even hurt the football revenue stream because playing KU would be a game with fewer viewers than if a current B1G school played almost ANYBODY else.

[uniftw]

I keep hearing KU to the B1G, but I'm not convinced. They can deliver the Kansas City TV market for basketball and they can provide some revenue from the NCAA basketball tourney, but is that enough to dilute the revenue from football by one more league member?

KU would get a full league share for football and provide absolutely nothing toward that revenue stream. KU might even hurt the football revenue stream because playing KU would be a game with fewer viewers than if a current B1G school played almost ANYBODY else.

B1G media revenue jumped to about 50M a year starting this year. Being able to package Kansas in that for basketball makes it worth it.

Kansas City is the 33rd media market in the country. The B1G currently has the 1, 3, 4(ish), 7, 13, 15, 18, 21, 23, 26, 27, 31, 35, 36, 41 media markets. If they can get 33 (Kansas City) and 30 (UCONN) you bet your ass they will.

I mean, they added Rutgers for god sakes.

[SubGod22]

I keep hearing KU to the B1G, but I'm not convinced. They can deliver the Kansas City TV market for basketball and they can provide some revenue from the NCAA basketball tourney, but is that enough to dilute the revenue from football by one more league member?

KU would get a full league share for football and provide absolutely nothing toward that revenue stream. KU might even hurt the football revenue stream because playing KU would be a game with fewer viewers than if a current B1G school played almost ANYBODY else.

B1G media revenue jumped to about 50M a year starting this year. Being able to package Kansas in that for basketball makes it worth it.

Kansas City is the 33rd media market in the country. The B1G currently has the 1, 3, 4(ish), 7, 13, 15, 18, 21, 23, 26, 27, 31, 35, 36, 41 media markets. If they can get 33 (Kansas City) and 30 (UCONN) you bet your ass they will.

I mean, they added Rutgers for god sakes.

You also have to consider that KU is one of about five or so schools where lack of football doesn't really matter. They are of the bluest of blue bloods as I saw someone post elsewhere. They have a national following and bring a lot to the table. Their tier 3 rights net them more than a lot of football schools get and that's essentially only for their basketball. Kansas, like Duke or Kentucky or UNC if their conferences fell apart, would find a home in another power conference.

I think had KU been looking to leave when MU and others were looking, they'd probably already be in the B1G. The B1G won't get Virginia and North Carolina or any of those over there so they're more likely to end up with KU and maybe OU or pulling MU away from the SEC.

Texas isn't joining anyone else as long as they have the LHN. They could try football independence and place their other sports somewhere like the deal ND has with the ACC.

OU will definitely land on their feet.

ISU is a fine school, but the BIG isn't adding a 2nd school in Iowa. And ISU probably isn't going to be taken by the ACC or SEC due to location and the same could be said for the PAC. If the XII falls apart completely, they're likely to end up in the MWC or AAC. Same for KSU and others. I'm not sure if any of the power conferences would really consider the other seven. Maybe if the PAC wanted to get into Texas it a few of them could be taken. OSU might have an outside chance of the PAC in that case or the SEC if OU goes and brings them along. TCU might have an outside chance due to football and being in DFW. Baylor is screwed because of the excess baggage they carry.

The remaining schools really need the AAC not to land a quality contract when they come up for a new TV deal. The remaining XII schools will end up with less than what they're getting now, but if the AAC gets a weak deal, they might be able to pull the best of them in. They still might not be a power conference, but they may be able to give themselves the status of the best of the 'G' conferences. But an XII without UT and OU is not making near what they make now. And if KU is gone as well it really hurts them and it's possible that they wouldn't be able to take from the AAC.

[UEACES80]

I would argue the SEC could go for Oklahoma (National Name School), TCU (DFW Market), Houston (Sleeping Giant in Hoops already arrived in Football) and their choice of a) Memphis (Natural rival with Arkansas, Vandy, Tenn, Ole Miss) b) UCF (Large School with Orlando Market) or c) Cincy (natural rival to UK and a slap in Big 10 face placing a member in OH).

Big10 would love tos core Texas but doubt that is happening. Oklahoma and Kansas could be targets.

On the outside are Okie State (unless OU takes little brother with them as a package), Baylor (living in TX I would love to see them get left off the Merry Go Round), K-State, WVU, Texas Tech and Iowa State (as I believe those of you that are closer to that situation than I am here in TX).

My guess is that if the Big4 Texas, OU, Kansas and TCU (TV Market) were to leave the remnants of Okie State, Baylor, K-State, Texas Tech and Iowa State might try to salvage the Big8 by inviting others left out of this merger mania such Houston, Memphis, Cincy, Tulsa, SMU, Rice or even another potential sleeping giant in a large TV market UTSA. I would think WVU would say adios to the travel and look to join the American as I doubt there market share would interest the Big10 unless the Big10 wants to lead the nation in couches burnt after big wins.

[TheAsianSensation]

The problem is that in order for realignment to happen now (read: Big 12 dissolving), you need each of the Pac-12, SEC, ACC, and Big 10 to feel they're gaining money. Finding a permutation that makes all 4 happy is nearly impossible. Pac-12 is going to need both Texas and Oklahoma to make any of their plans work. I don't see how the SEC can expand without Oklahoma. The B1G could probably be fine with Kansas/UConn, but it's not plan A. ACC would probably go along with any break-even plan that ends the Big 12.

Only path that seems possible to me is that when the GOR runs out:
- Pac 16 adds the Texhoma plan (Texas/TTU/OU/OSU)
- SEC adds TCU (DFW market) and Cincy (new market)
- B1G adds UConn/Kansas
- ACC adds WVU (reluctantly, but just does it to kill the Big 12) and Notre Dame (who is forced at gunpoint into a conference for football)
- Baylor, K-State, and Iowa St out.

Texas independence won't work it would kill Pac-12 expansion. Oklahoma to the SEC or B1G would kill Pac-12 expansion. TCU or Oklahoma to anywhere but the SEC would kill SEC expansion. UConn to the ACC would kill B1G expansion. Notre Dame staying in limbo keeps the ACC from expanding. There's a lot of ducks that have to get lined up in a row for the Big 12 to die.

[Cdizzle]

For the B12 to die? Perhaps. For the B12 to remain a power conference? Not so much, I think. Not all of the above have to take place for the league to lose its fingernail grip as part of the P5. Pretty much only one of them would do it.

[SubGod22]

The problem is that in order for realignment to happen now (read: Big 12 dissolving), you need each of the Pac-12, SEC, ACC, and Big 10 to feel they're gaining money. Finding a permutation that makes all 4 happy is nearly impossible. Pac-12 is going to need both Texas and Oklahoma to make any of their plans work. I don't see how the SEC can expand without Oklahoma. The B1G could probably be fine with Kansas/UConn, but it's not plan A. ACC would probably go along with any break-even plan that ends the Big 12.

Only path that seems possible to me is that when the GOR runs out:
- Pac 16 adds the Texhoma plan (Texas/TTU/OU/OSU)
- SEC adds TCU (DFW market) and Cincy (new market)
- B1G adds UConn/Kansas
- ACC adds WVU (reluctantly, but just does it to kill the Big 12) and Notre Dame (who is forced at gunpoint into a conference for football)
- Baylor, K-State, and Iowa St out.

Texas independence won't work it would kill Pac-12 expansion. Oklahoma to the SEC or B1G would kill Pac-12 expansion. TCU or Oklahoma to anywhere but the SEC would kill SEC expansion. UConn to the ACC would kill B1G expansion. Notre Dame staying in limbo keeps the ACC from expanding. There's a lot of ducks that have to get lined up in a row for the Big 12 to die.

I don't think UConn is very high on the list for the B1G. I don't think they'll ever get Virginia, but they would inquire. Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma would all be ahead of UConn. I think the B1G is likely to get two of those before they'd have to go to UConn.

I don't think the PAC expands. Texas isn't giving up the LHN and as long as they have that none of the other conferences are taking them in. UT is more likely to go the Indy route and try to get a ND type deal with what remains of the XII or another conference.

OU would be a target of the SEC, but who would go with them is the question. TCU is possible because of DFW, although OU kind brings that market into play by itself plus it's a national brand. SEC could think outside the box and try to bring KU with OU. SEC basketball could use a KU/UK matchup every year and while KU football is bad, it gives the western SEC an easy win and brings in another national brand in basketball. Though I believe KU prefers the B1G. Though they would revive the Border War with MU. The SEC would also absolutely own the KC market with MU and KU.

Tech needs Texas if it's going anywhere else. So they're either stuck in a weaker/rebuilt XII or they end up in the MWC.

TCU might be able to get into the SEC but I wouldn't guarantee anything. I doubt the PAC would be interested, especially without UT.

Nobody will want to touch Baylor. Way too much baggage and I'm sure they'll have another controversy in the next 5 years. They'll be lucky if the AAC would take them in.

OSU would need to be able to tag along with OU into the SEC but I doubt that would happen. But I'd say there's a very slim chance. Of course the PAC might be an option if both OU and UT went.

KSU would be in the MWC if the XII died. KU won't leave unless the XII is falling apart and not just with rumors. If UT or OU or both leave, KU will have the green light to ditch KSU. KSU isn't getting into one of the other P4's.

Iowa State is a solid school. Football has moments but is usually bad. Basketball is good. It's in the AAU but the only conference that really makes sense in the B1G and they already have Iowa. They'd end up MWC/AAC.

West Virginia would be destined for the AAC. My understanding is they've applied to the SEC a few times and basically been laughed at. I don't think the ACC would want them either.

If the XII survives (kinda), it would be without OU, UT and KU. The conference would be getting a much lower TV contract which would make it more difficult for them to pull from the AAC I would think. The AAC should get a better deal when they're up in a few years. The MWC has a poor media deal which might allow for the remaining XII schools to pull in a few from there, but I wouldn't call that a guarantee. That conference is a lot less desirable without the big 3. It's not a horrible conference, but it's not a power conference either. There's no way BYU is interested without UT/OU.

Both the MWC and AAC can still expand if they choose, but they're no longer under fire to do so quickly. They can take their time and decide what's best for them. See if there's anyone out there that they feel makes them stronger. There's no need for either to rush into things.

[WSpringsBird]

The problem is that in order for realignment to happen now (read: Big 12 dissolving), you need each of the Pac-12, SEC, ACC, and Big 10 to feel they're gaining money. Finding a permutation that makes all 4 happy is nearly impossible. Pac-12 is going to need both Texas and Oklahoma to make any of their plans work. I don't see how the SEC can expand without Oklahoma. The B1G could probably be fine with Kansas/UConn, but it's not plan A. ACC would probably go along with any break-even plan that ends the Big 12.

Only path that seems possible to me is that when the GOR runs out:
- Pac 16 adds the Texhoma plan (Texas/TTU/OU/OSU)
- SEC adds TCU (DFW market) and Cincy (new market)
- B1G adds UConn/Kansas
- ACC adds WVU (reluctantly, but just does it to kill the Big 12) and Notre Dame (who is forced at gunpoint into a conference for football)
- Baylor, K-State, and Iowa St out.

Texas independence won't work it would kill Pac-12 expansion. Oklahoma to the SEC or B1G would kill Pac-12 expansion. TCU or Oklahoma to anywhere but the SEC would kill SEC expansion. UConn to the ACC would kill B1G expansion. Notre Dame staying in limbo keeps the ACC from expanding. There's a lot of ducks that have to get lined up in a row for the Big 12 to die.

I don't think UConn is very high on the list for the B1G. I don't think they'll ever get Virginia, but they would inquire. Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma would all be ahead of UConn. I think the B1G is likely to get two of those before they'd have to go to UConn.

I don't think the PAC expands. Texas isn't giving up the LHN and as long as they have that none of the other conferences are taking them in. UT is more likely to go the Indy route and try to get a ND type deal with what remains of the XII or another conference.

OU would be a target of the SEC, but who would go with them is the question. TCU is possible because of DFW, although OU kind brings that market into play by itself plus it's a national brand. SEC could think outside the box and try to bring KU with OU. SEC basketball could use a KU/UK matchup every year and while KU football is bad, it gives the western SEC an easy win and brings in another national brand in basketball. Though I believe KU prefers the B1G. Though they would revive the Border War with MU. The SEC would also absolutely own the KC market with MU and KU.

Tech needs Texas if it's going anywhere else. So they're either stuck in a weaker/rebuilt XII or they end up in the MWC.

TCU might be able to get into the SEC but I wouldn't guarantee anything. I doubt the PAC would be interested, especially without UT.

Nobody will want to touch Baylor. Way too much baggage and I'm sure they'll have another controversy in the next 5 years. They'll be lucky if the AAC would take them in.

OSU would need to be able to tag along with OU into the SEC but I doubt that would happen. But I'd say there's a very slim chance. Of course the PAC might be an option if both OU and UT went.

KSU would be in the MWC if the XII died. KU won't leave unless the XII is falling apart and not just with rumors. If UT or OU or both leave, KU will have the green light to ditch KSU. KSU isn't getting into one of the other P4's.

Iowa State is a solid school. Football has moments but is usually bad. Basketball is good. It's in the AAU but the only conference that really makes sense in the B1G and they already have Iowa. They'd end up MWC/AAC.

West Virginia would be destined for the AAC. My understanding is they've applied to the SEC a few times and basically been laughed at. I don't think the ACC would want them either.

If the XII survives (kinda), it would be without OU, UT and KU. The conference would be getting a much lower TV contract which would make it more difficult for them to pull from the AAC I would think. The AAC should get a better deal when they're up in a few years. The MWC has a poor media deal which might allow for the remaining XII schools to pull in a few from there, but I wouldn't call that a guarantee. That conference is a lot less desirable without the big 3. It's not a horrible conference, but it's not a power conference either. There's no way BYU is interested without UT/OU.

Both the MWC and AAC can still expand if they choose, but they're no longer under fire to do so quickly. They can take their time and decide what's best for them. See if there's anyone out there that they feel makes them stronger. There's no need for either to rush into things.

I don't think the Big 10 presidents are likely to approve any school that is not a member of the American Assoccasion of Universities, which is an invitation-only group of the nation's universities with the most intensive research activities. That would rule out Oklahoma and Connecticut. The Big 10 was interested in Notre Dame in the past, even though it is not an AAU member, but it is viewed as an almost certain addition to the AAU in the future (and it would bring more to the league than other potential non-AAU members). Nebraska was an AAU member when it was offered admission to the Big 10, but it was later booted out. Not sure whether the presidents would have approved its admission if they had known that was in the cards.