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New Lunardi bracket: UNI holds at a 6, WSU still a 4.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Same for Jerry Palm: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

This season is really boring from the bracketology standpoint. Wichita/UNI hovering around the 4-5 line, and Illinois St is a full 10 off the NIT bubble, and that's being generous.

At this point, it's just more fun to look at bracket pairings. Actually, I think it would be a massive break to be the highest 5 seed instead of the lowest 4 seed. That 4 seed's gonna get shipped to Seattle. The top 5 seed will get highest geographical priority among the 5 seeds.

Also, right now, it'll be really tough to image the Omaha sub-regional being filled by anyone other than Big 12 #1 and Big 12 #2. Maybe if everyone behind Kansas gets jammed up in conference play, one of Wichita/UNI can sneak into that site.

MIDWEST
@Louisville
1) Kentucky (23-0) vs. 16) Radford (14-8)/Colgate (10-14)
8) Iowa (15-8) vs. 9) Cincinnati (17-6)
@Pittsburgh
4) Butler (18-6) vs. 13) Toledo (15-8)
5) Wichita St (20-3) vs. 12) Harvard (13-5)
@Columbus
3) Louisville (19-4) vs. 14) Murray St (19-4)
6) West Virginia (18-5) vs. 11) Texas A&M (16-6)/St John's (14-8)
@Columbus
2) Wisconsin (21-2) vs. 15) North Carolina Central (15-6)
7) Georgetown (15-8) vs. 10) George Washington (17-6)

SOUTH
@Charlotte
1) Duke (20-3) vs. 16) New Mexico St (13-10)
8) Xavier (15-9) vs. 9) Colorado St (19-4)
@Portland
4) Utah (17-4) vs. 13) Valparaiso (19-4)
5) Oklahoma (16-7) vs. 12) Stephen F Austin (16-3)
@Louisville
3) Notre Dame (21-4) vs. 14) UAB (12-11)
6) Oklahoma St (15-7) vs. 11) Miami (15-8)/Temple (17-7)
@Omaha
2) Kansas (19-4) vs. 15) Texas Southern (11-12)
7) SMU (18-5) vs. 10) Michigan St (15-8)

WEST
@Seattle
1) Gonzaga (23-1) vs. 16) Sacramento St (14-6)
8) San Diego St (17-6) vs. 9) Stanford (16-7)
@Jacksonville
4) Baylor (17-5) vs. 13) William & Mary (13-8)
5) VCU (18-5) vs. 12) Wofford (18-5)
@Jacksonville
3) North Carolina (18-6) vs. 14) Louisiana-Monroe (12-8)
6) Providence (17-7) vs. 11) Ole Miss (16-7)
@Portland
2) Arizona (20-3) vs. 15) North Dakota St (15-7)
7) Ohio St (18-6) vs. 10) Seton Hall (15-8)

EAST
@Charlotte
1) Virginia (21-2) vs. 16) St Francis(NY) (15-9)/North Florida (12-10)
8) Texas (15-8) vs. 9) Georgia (15-7)
@Seattle
4) Northern Iowa (22-2) vs. 13) Iona (18-6)
5) Maryland (19-5) vs. 12) Tulsa (17-5)
@Omaha
3) Iowa St (17-5) vs. 14) UC-Davis (16-4)
6) Indiana (17-7) vs. 11) Old Dominion (18-4)
@Pittsburgh
2) Villanova (21-2) vs. 15) Albany (16-7)
7) Arkansas (18-5) vs. 10) Dayton (17-5)

I'm still of the belief that, if Illinois State gets to 20 wins, they make the NIT.
They're at 15-9 (with a D2 win).

@ UNI
vs WSU
@ BU
vs LU
vs SIU
@ UE

vs anyone but WSU/UNI
and if they win...
vs either WSU/UNI
and if they win...
vs either WSU/UNI

So essentially they have 7/8/9 to win 5. There is only 1 scenario where they get to 20 wins and don't beat one the top 2.

I'll also ask: When was the last time The Valley didn't have an NIT rep?

Seems like a pretty common thing recently, without looking

uniftw wrote:Seems like a pretty common thing recently, without looking

Since the NCAA took over the NIT in 2006...

2014: 1
-Indiana State (6)

2013: 1
-Indiana State (6)

2012: 2
-Illinois State (7)
-UNI (7)

2011: 2
-Missouri State (3)
-Wichita State (4) (Champion)

2010: 2
-Wichita State (3)
-Illinois State (6)

2009: 2
-Creighton (1)
-Illinois State (5)

2008: 3
-Illinois State (2)
-Creighton (3)
-Southern Illinois (4)

2007: 2
-Missouri State (3)
-Bradley (4)

2006: 2
-Creighton (2)
-Missouri State (2)

So, looks like it's been since 2012.

Good lord, that MSU championship team was only a 3 seed in the NIT. Ouch.

My own personal NIT bubble (assuming 10 spots will be vacuumed up by autobids):

In:
Florida (12-11)
Kansas St (12-12)
BYU (16-8)
Michigan (12-11)
Alabama (13-9)
Memphis (14-9)
Tennessee (13-9)

Last 4 in:
Clemson (14-9)
Oregon St (15-7)
UConn (13-9)
Washington (14-9)

Last 10 out:
Yale (14-7)
Buffalo (15-7)
Green Bay (17-5)
Eastern Washington (15-5)
Louisiana Tech (17-6)
UTEP (16-7)
Western Kentucky (16-7)
Bowling Green (15-5)
Illinois St (14-9)
Pepperdine (14-9)

You may sense a theme in who I project in and out

Still have UNI on the 4 line and Wichita on the 5 line. However, I was building a bracket and noticed at the end that I churned out this regional:

MIDWEST
@Louisville
1) Kentucky (25-0) vs. 16) Radford (16-8)/St Francis(NY) (17-9)
8) Michigan St (17-8) vs. 9) Cincinnati (17-8)
@Jacksonville
4) North Carolina (18-7) vs. 13) Louisiana Tech (19-6)
5) Wichita St (22-3) vs. 12) UMass (16-9)
@Columbus
3) Louisville (20-5) vs. 14) UC-Davis (17-4)
6) Georgetown (16-8) vs. 11) Illinois (17-9)/Texas A&M (17-7)
@Omaha
2) Kansas (21-4) vs. 15) South Dakota St (17-8)
7) VCU (19-6) vs. 10) Iowa (15-10)

Maybe it's just me, but that's loaded. And a direct result of the geographic preferences of the NCAA, the same ones that cost Wichita last year.

On the other hand, a UNC/Kentucky/Kansas path might be fun

EAST
@Charlotte
1) Virginia (23-1) vs. 16) New Mexico St (15-10)/Bucknell (14-12)
8) Ohio St (19-7) vs. 9) Stanford (16-9)
@Seattle
4) Northern Iowa (24-2) vs. 13) Iona (21-6)
5) Baylor (17-7) vs. 12) Murray St (21-4)
@Portland
3) Utah (19-4) vs. 14) Eastern Washington (16-6)
6) Oklahoma (17-8) vs. 11) St John's (16-8)
@Pittsburgh
2) Villanova (23-2) vs. 15) Albany (18-7)
7) West Virginia (19-6) vs. 10) Temple (19-7)

UNI and WSU are getting a bit disrespected in most brackets I have seen. UNI shouldn't be worse than a #4 seed in any bracket right now, but I've seen them as a #6 in several. WSU should be a #5 in my eyes and it seems like they are anywhere between 5-8. If they play a close game on the 28th and meet up again in the finals in St.Louis, I think they both could get a 4 seed or better. I think Illinois State has shot themselves in the foot for an NIT bid unless they get to the semi's with no more than 1 more loss. Indiana State has no chance of an NIT bid. Even if they beat WSU in the Hulman Center and get to the finals (which would include beating UNI or WSU), they would be 18-14 with an RPI of roughly 105 and an SOS of 93. They would then have a couple top 25 wins but probably only good enough for a CIT bid. Evansville is still rather interesting though. Although they haven't been playing that well recently, they still actually have a chance to build a resume the committee will have to at least look at. They have Drake, @WSU, @ UNI and IlSt. It would certainly take a miracle, but if they somehow ran the table (not likely, I know) and made it to the MVC finals, they would finish 23-9 an RPI of 58 and 4 or 5 top 50 wins. I personally think UNI takes care of business and reaches the finals easily and WSU dominates the Sycamores in Terre Haute, but get caught looking ahead in St. Louis. It sounds crazy and I really don't want to see it happen, but I'm kinda starting to like the way ISUb is playing now and I think they will play spoiler in the MVC tourney.

Final Predictions:
UNI- NCAA at-large #5 seed
WSU- NCAA at-large #5 seed
ISUb- NCAA auto bid #14 seed
Eville- CIT/CBI bid
ISUr- CIT/CBI bid
Loyola- CIT/CBI bid