MVC Conference RPI Rank

[Aargh]

In an utterly amazing turn of events, the MVC went 0-4 today (before UNI took out Iowa) and moved up in conference rpi from 11 to 9, and just a whisker above #10. After UNI's win, MVC is still #9, but now closer to #8 than to #10. Must have been some of those "good losses" today.

[isumvc1]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

[Wufan]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

10 and 11 are right there with us. Wouldn't take much for us to slip.

[isumvc1]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

10 and 11 are right there with us. Wouldn't take much for us to slip.

very true, we need some good non conference wins to close out the non con season

[AndShock]

We're projected to end up in 11th .0001 ahead of the MAC. This doesn't take into account games that are TBD (like WSU's games 2 and 3 in Hawaii.)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

[Wufan]

The scheduling was too weak and the bottom half of the conference just isn't any good. MSU, ISUb, Bradley, SIU, and Drake are all much worse than expected. Thank goodness for Loyola!

[achrist70]

Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

[Aargh]

After today's games, we're still in 8th, but the Shox have Loyola Marymount coming up, which could knock the Valley down a notch even with a neutral court win for the Shox.

With the unusually large gap between the top end of the league and the bottom end of the league, I found an interesting way to look at how tough the league will be for your school. To demonstrate, I'll use the actual numbers for conference rpi and WSU.

Take the conference rpi raw number (.5154 when this post was made) and multiply that by ten for the raw number for the entire league. .5154 x 10 = 5.154

Subtract your team's raw rpi number. I'll use WSU's number when this was posted.

5.154 - .6893 = 4.4647. That gives you the total raw number for the teams your team will face in the Valley, since you don't get to play yourself.

Divide that number by 9. 4.4647/9 = .4961

Look up where that number would fall in conference rpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/conferencerpi). For WSU, that makes the league schedule the equivalent of playing in the 15th strongest conference. Just ahead of the Patriot League, and just behind the Colonial Athletic League.

[LanceShock]

Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

Favored, but none of the games have your team at 100% chance of winning. They come to the conference record using the probabilities for the games, so it takes into account that you won't win every game you are favored in. That same website has Wichita State 15-3 with the only game with less than a 50% of WSU winning being at UNI.

Thinking of it another way, let's assume there is a 70% chance of winning every game, so you are favored in every game. By probability, you will still lose 3 out of every 10 games.

[pafan]

Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

I believe they come up with the projected record simply by summing all the probabilities in the table. Using Evansville as an example, the sum of the probabilities is 11.61 conference wins. Then it rounds. The site's table says "expected conference record: 12-6".