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achrist70 wrote:Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

Favored, but none of the games have your team at 100% chance of winning. They come to the conference record using the probabilities for the games, so it takes into account that you won't win every game you are favored in. That same website has Wichita State 15-3 with the only game with less than a 50% of WSU winning being at UNI.

Thinking of it another way, let's assume there is a 70% chance of winning every game, so you are favored in every game. By probability, you will still lose 3 out of every 10 games.

achrist70 wrote:Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

I believe they come up with the projected record simply by summing all the probabilities in the table. Using Evansville as an example, the sum of the probabilities is 11.61 conference wins. Then it rounds. The site's table says "expected conference record: 12-6".

back at #9 for the time being, prior to the WSU game tonight. Pretty close among 3-4 conferences right now for that 8th spot.

tied for 10th today with the Mountain West over on warren nolan, need a couple wins tonight.

Now that we're done with the OOC, here is where things stand entering conference play (per WarreNolan.com):

1) Big 12 .5947
2) Big East .5839
3) SEC .5690
4) ACC .5654
5) Big Ten .5638
6) Pac 12 .5537
7) A-10 .5453
8) WCC .5207
9) AAC .5196
10) MVC .5140
11) MWC .5083
12) MAC .5016
13) Big West .5003
14) Horizon .4989
15) Patriot .4907