How many conference game will Wichita State lose

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How many conference games will Wichita State lose?

Poll ended at January 7th, 2015, 10:34 am

0
3
7%
1
7
16%
2
12
28%
3
10
23%
4
7
16%
5
1
2%
6
3
7%
 
Total votes : 43

Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby rlh04d » December 19th, 2014, 5:19 pm

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

No, we're not the same team we were last year.

Last year's team routinely played in close games at the half against far weaker competition. For anyone overly worried about WSU's performance, here's the important number to remember: 7. As in seven of WSU's eight games against D1 opponents were against teams definitely better than the #5 team in the Valley, per Kenpom ... and the only team not in that list is Saint Louis, who are 3-0 against the bottom half of the conference.

5's a good number, too. Five of WSU's eight D1 opponents are better than the #3 team in the Valley. New Mexico St. checks in just slightly after Illinois St and before Evansville.

WSU's schedule is also ranked right around 200 spots higher (again, per KenPom) than any Valley team other than Illinois St & Missouri St. The only Valley team even CLOSE to WSU in schedule strength is still ranked 126 spots behind them.

The chasm between WSU/UNI and Illinois St/Evansville is pretty big right now. And the chasm between those two and the rest is even bigger.

People have an odd remembrance of last year. I guess an undefeated season naturally does that, but come on. We were hardly the unstoppable wrecking ball we became early. The WSU team last year that *I* remember trailed at the half against six of their 12 D1 noncon opponents, and they were tied or within one possession of three others ... that means we had three comfortable games at halftime. Through nine games this year, against a much tougher SOS, WSU has trailed once at halftime, and hasn't been within a single possession outside of that.

Outside of a loss to Utah on the road and a close game against Bama (who trailed WSU by one point last year at the half and lost by 5), WSU's exceeded it's noncon performance last year, to a pretty significant degree.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Cdizzle » December 20th, 2014, 12:28 am

rlh04d wrote:
ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

No, we're not the same team we were last year.

Last year's team routinely played in close games at the half against far weaker competition. For anyone overly worried about WSU's performance, here's the important number to remember: 7. As in seven of WSU's eight games against D1 opponents were against teams definitely better than the #5 team in the Valley, per Kenpom ... and the only team not in that list is Saint Louis, who are 3-0 against the bottom half of the conference.

5's a good number, too. Five of WSU's eight D1 opponents are better than the #3 team in the Valley. New Mexico St. checks in just slightly after Illinois St and before Evansville.

WSU's schedule is also ranked right around 200 spots higher (again, per KenPom) than any Valley team other than Illinois St & Missouri St. The only Valley team even CLOSE to WSU in schedule strength is still ranked 126 spots behind them.

The chasm between WSU/UNI and Illinois St/Evansville is pretty big right now. And the chasm between those two and the rest is even bigger.

People have an odd remembrance of last year. I guess an undefeated season naturally does that, but come on. We were hardly the unstoppable wrecking ball we became early. The WSU team last year that *I* remember trailed at the half against six of their 12 D1 noncon opponents, and they were tied or within one possession of three others ... that means we had three comfortable games at halftime. Through nine games this year, against a much tougher SOS, WSU has trailed once at halftime, and hasn't been within a single possession outside of that.

Outside of a loss to Utah on the road and a close game against Bama (who trailed WSU by one point last year at the half and lost by 5), WSU's exceeded it's noncon performance last year, to a pretty significant degree.

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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Championz » December 20th, 2014, 2:05 am

BirdmanBB wrote:Wow. Haven't even lost a game yet to someone outside of UNI and you are already installing an "excuse." You can't believe a WSU fan would say that. Geez. A WSU fan with reason is a breath of fresh air these days. They a few and far between. The arrogance is at all time high as always. It's become a carrying card synonymous with being a shocker fan. Get over yourself.


Shocker fans probably have a reason to be arrogant. Their team has kind of backed up everything in this conference for the last few years. If there was ever a time to be "arrogant", wouldn't you think that this is the time?

On the other hand, look over on to an Illinois State message board and there is a healthy dose of arrogance over there, including yourself. The funny thing is with Illinois State fans being arrogant is that there is nothing to back up everything you say. You've done NOTHING in this league in the past 17 years. You have been owned by WSU and several other teams for the better part of the last decade. Your room for talk is small. WSU fan's room for talk is large. Get it? You want that to change? Then do something about it.

Until then, know your place and you get over it.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby WSpringsBird » December 20th, 2014, 3:13 am

Nice analysis, rhl04d. I would guess that the Shockers will lose two conference games. There is still a pretty big gap between the Shocks and the rest of the conference.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Wufan » December 20th, 2014, 7:05 am

The groupings now are:

Deserving: WSU/UNI (WSU is ahead based on previous performance and ranking, but that's it)

Developing: ISU/UE/LUC (not sure it will hold, but yeah, Loyola is in this group)

Disappointing: MSU/BU/SIU/ISUb

Disaster: Drake
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Redbird23 » December 20th, 2014, 10:31 am

They will probably go undefeated at home and lose three on the road (UNI, ISUr, UE). I hate this team but I've noticed like Florida State they just find ways to win this year (Detroit/Bama). But I feel if you give a good conference team that much confidence and the crowd is going crazy, I don't feel they would get it done at UNI or somewhere.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby shockem » December 20th, 2014, 11:19 am

while I do think WSU will drop a couple games in Valley play this year, I don't necessarily think it has to be a road game. WSU is one of, if not the best, road team in the country. They love going on the road and are highly successful. What will beat WSU is a team with size and depth in the post and long athletes on the perimeter that can push Ron and Fred out and keep them from getting easy shots. I'm not sure who those teams are, but on paper they look like UNI and ILLState. On top of that, they better have the ability to run an efficient offense becuase the Shox D won't make it easy.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby rlh04d » December 20th, 2014, 11:30 am

Wufan wrote:Deserving: WSU/UNI (WSU is ahead based on previous performance and ranking, but that's it)

WSU's also ahead in:

- Kenpom Ranking (11 vs 32)
- Kenpom Offense (13 vs 24)
- Kenpom Defense (25 vs 66)
- RPI Ranking (3 vs 24)
- Kenpom SOS (36 vs 221)
- Standard SOS (6 vs 150)
- Raw scoring offense (75.3 vs 69.4)
- Scoring margin (16.3 vs 10.4)
- RPI-based resume (vs top 25: 1-0 vs 0-1; vs top 50: 2-1 vs 0-1; vs top 100: 3-1 vs 2-1)

Northern Iowa does lead WSU in FT% and FG% (48% vs 46%). They're tied in points allowed per game (59).

I know you're trying to be unbiased, but WSU is simply ahead, based on ... well, everything. Previous performance is irrelevant to this year. This year WSU is a better team than UNI, thus far, completely divorced of previous seasons.

You can choose which of those rankings you value, but for me, 185 spot difference in KenPom advanced SOS and yet WSU still has nearly a 6 point better scoring margin (while taking the air out of the ball in all but two or three games) is pretty damn impressive.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Brot4britu » December 20th, 2014, 11:35 am

I say TWO--not because Shockers have regressed--I feel they have not--Just that the Valley is better--AND most thought it would not be. Real noise being made in North Central Iowa. North Side Chicago, Central Illinois and East Indiana. AND there could be a surprise among the rest for a one game explosion.
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Re: How many conference game will Wichita State lose

Postby Wufan » December 20th, 2014, 12:52 pm

rlh04d wrote:
Wufan wrote:Deserving: WSU/UNI (WSU is ahead based on previous performance and ranking, but that's it)

WSU's also ahead in:

- Kenpom Ranking (11 vs 32)
- Kenpom Offense (13 vs 24)
- Kenpom Defense (25 vs 66)
- RPI Ranking (3 vs 24)
- Kenpom SOS (36 vs 221)
- Standard SOS (6 vs 150)
- Raw scoring offense (75.3 vs 69.4)
- Scoring margin (16.3 vs 10.4)
- RPI-based resume (vs top 25: 1-0 vs 0-1; vs top 50: 2-1 vs 0-1; vs top 100: 3-1 vs 2-1)

Northern Iowa does lead WSU in FT% and FG% (48% vs 46%). They're tied in points allowed per game (59).

I know you're trying to be unbiased, but WSU is simply ahead, based on ... well, everything. Previous performance is irrelevant to this year. This year WSU is a better team than UNI, thus far, completely divorced of previous seasons.

You can choose which of those rankings you value, but for me, 185 spot difference in KenPom advanced SOS and yet WSU still has nearly a 6 point better scoring margin (while taking the air out of the ball in all but two or three games) is pretty damn impressive.


Well, that's hard to argue with. I guess what I meant was that UNI is a really good team.
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