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ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

Baker hasn't improved? Are you blind? That's an insane comment.

5 losses or more and something awful has happened to WSU's team. I mean AWFUL. WSU is still really good, and the rest of the league isn't. Not saying they can't lose (I believe I said they'd lose 2 or 3) but FIVE or more? Even 4 is a stretch. Outside of UNI, someone will have to be WAY better than they've been AND WSU will have to be off their game...I can't believe a WSU fan just said that.

WSU has scored less than 70 2 times, both against teams that would finish no lower than 2nd were they in the Valley. Scoring is fine.

2livewu wrote:

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

Outside of UNI, someone will have to be WAY better than they've been AND WSU will have to be off their game...I can't believe a WSU fan just said that.

Wow. Haven't even lost a game yet to someone outside of UNI and you are already installing an "excuse." You can't believe a WSU fan would say that. Geez. A WSU fan with reason is a breath of fresh air these days. They a few and far between. The arrogance is at all time high as always. It's become a carrying card synonymous with being a shocker fan. Get over yourself.

BirdmanBB wrote:

2livewu wrote:

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

Outside of UNI, someone will have to be WAY better than they've been AND WSU will have to be off their game...I can't believe a WSU fan just said that.

Wow. Haven't even lost a game yet to someone outside of UNI and you are already installing an "excuse." You can't believe a WSU fan would say that. Geez. A WSU fan with reason is a breath of fresh air these days. They a few and far between. The arrogance is at all time high as always. It's become a carrying card synonymous with being a shocker fan. Get over yourself.

What excuse was installed?

BirdmanBB wrote:

2livewu wrote:

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

Outside of UNI, someone will have to be WAY better than they've been AND WSU will have to be off their game...I can't believe a WSU fan just said that.

Wow. Haven't even lost a game yet to someone outside of UNI and you are already installing an "excuse." You can't believe a WSU fan would say that. Geez. A WSU fan with reason is a breath of fresh air these days. They a few and far between. The arrogance is at all time high as always. It's become a carrying card synonymous with being a shocker fan. Get over yourself.

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

No, we're not the same team we were last year.

Last year's team routinely played in close games at the half against far weaker competition. For anyone overly worried about WSU's performance, here's the important number to remember: 7. As in seven of WSU's eight games against D1 opponents were against teams definitely better than the #5 team in the Valley, per Kenpom ... and the only team not in that list is Saint Louis, who are 3-0 against the bottom half of the conference.

5's a good number, too. Five of WSU's eight D1 opponents are better than the #3 team in the Valley. New Mexico St. checks in just slightly after Illinois St and before Evansville.

WSU's schedule is also ranked right around 200 spots higher (again, per KenPom) than any Valley team other than Illinois St & Missouri St. The only Valley team even CLOSE to WSU in schedule strength is still ranked 126 spots behind them.

The chasm between WSU/UNI and Illinois St/Evansville is pretty big right now. And the chasm between those two and the rest is even bigger.

People have an odd remembrance of last year. I guess an undefeated season naturally does that, but come on. We were hardly the unstoppable wrecking ball we became early. The WSU team last year that *I* remember trailed at the half against six of their 12 D1 noncon opponents, and they were tied or within one possession of three others ... that means we had three comfortable games at halftime. Through nine games this year, against a much tougher SOS, WSU has trailed once at halftime, and hasn't been within a single possession outside of that.

Outside of a loss to Utah on the road and a close game against Bama (who trailed WSU by one point last year at the half and lost by 5), WSU's exceeded it's noncon performance last year, to a pretty significant degree.

rlh04d wrote:

ShockValue wrote:I said 3. It's hard to say I've been unimpressed considering the overall start, but we're not the same team we were last year. FVV seems hesitant to shoot, Baker hasn't improved, and we probably miss Cle more than I expected. I think 3-4 losses is very reasonable and possibly more if we can't find a way to score.

No, we're not the same team we were last year.

Last year's team routinely played in close games at the half against far weaker competition. For anyone overly worried about WSU's performance, here's the important number to remember: 7. As in seven of WSU's eight games against D1 opponents were against teams definitely better than the #5 team in the Valley, per Kenpom ... and the only team not in that list is Saint Louis, who are 3-0 against the bottom half of the conference.

5's a good number, too. Five of WSU's eight D1 opponents are better than the #3 team in the Valley. New Mexico St. checks in just slightly after Illinois St and before Evansville.

WSU's schedule is also ranked right around 200 spots higher (again, per KenPom) than any Valley team other than Illinois St & Missouri St. The only Valley team even CLOSE to WSU in schedule strength is still ranked 126 spots behind them.

The chasm between WSU/UNI and Illinois St/Evansville is pretty big right now. And the chasm between those two and the rest is even bigger.

People have an odd remembrance of last year. I guess an undefeated season naturally does that, but come on. We were hardly the unstoppable wrecking ball we became early. The WSU team last year that *I* remember trailed at the half against six of their 12 D1 noncon opponents, and they were tied or within one possession of three others ... that means we had three comfortable games at halftime. Through nine games this year, against a much tougher SOS, WSU has trailed once at halftime, and hasn't been within a single possession outside of that.

Outside of a loss to Utah on the road and a close game against Bama (who trailed WSU by one point last year at the half and lost by 5), WSU's exceeded it's noncon performance last year, to a pretty significant degree.

It is for times like these, that I wish there was a mic-drop smiley.

BirdmanBB wrote:Wow. Haven't even lost a game yet to someone outside of UNI and you are already installing an "excuse." You can't believe a WSU fan would say that. Geez. A WSU fan with reason is a breath of fresh air these days. They a few and far between. The arrogance is at all time high as always. It's become a carrying card synonymous with being a shocker fan. Get over yourself.

Shocker fans probably have a reason to be arrogant. Their team has kind of backed up everything in this conference for the last few years. If there was ever a time to be "arrogant", wouldn't you think that this is the time?

On the other hand, look over on to an Illinois State message board and there is a healthy dose of arrogance over there, including yourself. The funny thing is with Illinois State fans being arrogant is that there is nothing to back up everything you say. You've done NOTHING in this league in the past 17 years. You have been owned by WSU and several other teams for the better part of the last decade. Your room for talk is small. WSU fan's room for talk is large. Get it? You want that to change? Then do something about it.

Until then, know your place and you get over it.

Nice analysis, rhl04d. I would guess that the Shockers will lose two conference games. There is still a pretty big gap between the Shocks and the rest of the conference.

The groupings now are:

Deserving: WSU/UNI (WSU is ahead based on previous performance and ranking, but that's it)

Developing: ISU/UE/LUC (not sure it will hold, but yeah, Loyola is in this group)

Disappointing: MSU/BU/SIU/ISUb

Disaster: Drake

They will probably go undefeated at home and lose three on the road (UNI, ISUr, UE). I hate this team but I've noticed like Florida State they just find ways to win this year (Detroit/Bama). But I feel if you give a good conference team that much confidence and the crowd is going crazy, I don't feel they would get it done at UNI or somewhere.