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After one week, what do you think is a realistic scenario and best case for your school and the Valley?

Illinois State nearly crapped the bed against Morehead. One or two losses in the non-con probably eliminates the at-large chance so I suppose we have a "realistic" chance although I'm less confident than I was a week ago. Are we back to being a one bid league?

I wonder how the Shox see things going? You will obviously make the field but is a high seed already gone because of last night? You seem to get screwed regularly on seeding and that's without a questionable loss.

Red wrote:After one week, what do you think is a realistic scenario and best case for your school and the Valley?

Illinois State nearly crapped the bed against Morehead. One or two losses in the non-con probably eliminates the at-large chance so I suppose we have a "realistic" chance although I'm less confident than I was a week ago. Are we back to being a one bid league?

I wonder how the Shox see things going? You will obviously make the field but is a high seed already gone because of last night? You seem to get screwed regularly on seeding and that's without a questionable loss.

Best Case scenario for WSU is still a very very high seed.

Best Case: WSU Wins out and Tulsa continues with intensity they played with last night and wins the majority of the remainder of their games along with a few big wins. If they end up as a Top 25 RPI, the Shox only loss wouldn't look that bad. They could realistically end up a 1-3 seed with that record.

Now ... that probably wont happen. WSU will probably drop a couple more non-con (maybe one in Orlando, then to either UNLV, @Seton Hall, or Utah) and lose a few in the valley. That would still be good enough for a mid seed 5-12 in the tourney. At that point, how far WSU goes depends on how our talented bench decides to perform this year. If they don't gain confidence, we aren't going to make it far. If they live up to their potential, we will be scary. Its more likely something in the middle of that.

Stickboy46 wrote:

Red wrote:After one week, what do you think is a realistic scenario and best case for your school and the Valley?

Illinois State nearly crapped the bed against Morehead. One or two losses in the non-con probably eliminates the at-large chance so I suppose we have a "realistic" chance although I'm less confident than I was a week ago. Are we back to being a one bid league?

I wonder how the Shox see things going? You will obviously make the field but is a high seed already gone because of last night? You seem to get screwed regularly on seeding and that's without a questionable loss.

Best Case scenario for WSU is still a very very high seed.

Best Case: WSU Wins out and Tulsa continues with intensity they played with last night and wins the majority of the remainder of their games along with a few big wins. If they end up as a Top 25 RPI, the Shox only loss wouldn't look that bad. They could realistically end up a 1-3 seed with that record.

Now ... that probably wont happen. WSU will probably drop a couple more non-con (maybe one in Orlando, then to either UNLV, @Seton Hall, or Utah) and lose a few in the valley. That would still be good enough for a mid seed 5-12 in the tourney. At that point, how far WSU goes depends on how our talented bench decides to perform this year. If they don't gain confidence, we aren't going to make it far. If they live up to their potential, we will be scary. Its more likely something in the middle of that.

Some possible tourney games that Stickboy left off include Notre Dame, and Xavier or Dayton.

mvcfan wrote:

Stickboy46 wrote:

Red wrote:After one week, what do you think is a realistic scenario and best case for your school and the Valley?

Illinois State nearly crapped the bed against Morehead. One or two losses in the non-con probably eliminates the at-large chance so I suppose we have a "realistic" chance although I'm less confident than I was a week ago. Are we back to being a one bid league?

I wonder how the Shox see things going? You will obviously make the field but is a high seed already gone because of last night? You seem to get screwed regularly on seeding and that's without a questionable loss.

Best Case scenario for WSU is still a very very high seed.

Best Case: WSU Wins out and Tulsa continues with intensity they played with last night and wins the majority of the remainder of their games along with a few big wins. If they end up as a Top 25 RPI, the Shox only loss wouldn't look that bad. They could realistically end up a 1-3 seed with that record.

Now ... that probably wont happen. WSU will probably drop a couple more non-con (maybe one in Orlando, then to either UNLV, @Seton Hall, or Utah) and lose a few in the valley. That would still be good enough for a mid seed 5-12 in the tourney. At that point, how far WSU goes depends on how our talented bench decides to perform this year. If they don't gain confidence, we aren't going to make it far. If they live up to their potential, we will be scary. Its more likely something in the middle of that.

Some possible tourney games that Stickboy left off include Notre Dame, and Xavier or Dayton.

I covered that in the "in Orlando" portion of the post

Red wrote:After one week, what do you think is a realistic scenario and best case for your school and the Valley?

Illinois State nearly crapped the bed against Morehead. One or two losses in the non-con probably eliminates the at-large chance so I suppose we have a "realistic" chance although I'm less confident than I was a week ago. Are we back to being a one bid league?

I wonder how the Shox see things going? You will obviously make the field but is a high seed already gone because of last night? You seem to get screwed regularly on seeding and that's without a questionable loss.

Tulsa is no Morehead.

I think some people are seriously overreacting after a loss on the road to a Top 50 (probably better) opponent in November with a key starter only at about 70%.

I guess it appears gloomy when said team only loses a handful of games in multiple consecutive seasons. Perspective.

after the first weekend my impression is it's going to be a down year in the MVC, probably one bid unless WSU is upset in the MVC title game, just haven't been real impressed with any particular team yet. I hope I'm wrong, so we'll have to see. It's still very early and we'll learn more over the Thanksgiving holiday tourneys

I see WSU as a likely 5-12 seed. Loyola and Evansville haven't been challenged yet. Perhaps they will be at large worthy. UNI can certainly put together an at large resume with a bunch of wins. Best case scenario is three bids.

A 5-12 seed?

Championz wrote:A 5-12 seed?

Yeah. Last year we were a 7 seed.

Wufan wrote:

Championz wrote:A 5-12 seed?

Yeah. Last year we were a 7 seed.

Ok, so you mean a 5 seed. It appeared you meant anywhere from a 5 to a 12 seed.