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Red wrote:Not harping on this, but the trouble for the unlikely at large MVC candidates is that the league RPI is going to pull you down even if you win. Last year WSU was literally one of the last teams in and UNI needed the at large. Don't see much scenario for an at large this season even unless someone goes like 16-2 in MVC play and then makes the final in St loo.

UNI is currently at 24 for non-conference SOS. They need a win over Iowa and no bad MVC losses to have an outside chance.

WSU is currently only a 132 non-conf SOS, but they still have Oklahoma State to play and have the wins in the non-conf that UNI does not.

Both teams have some credibility with the selection committee having been in and won tournament games the last few years. That is not supposed to be a criteria, but both are building some name-recognition.

Illinois State has an RPI that could be nice with some wins in Hawai'i, but they basically need to win out non-con. Loyola has the record, but the SOS is awful, so likely on the outs there unless they keep the winning pct. going in conference.

Khan4Cats wrote:

Red wrote:Not harping on this, but the trouble for the unlikely at large MVC candidates is that the league RPI is going to pull you down even if you win. Last year WSU was literally one of the last teams in and UNI needed the at large. Don't see much scenario for an at large this season even unless someone goes like 16-2 in MVC play and then makes the final in St loo.

UNI is currently at 24 for non-conference SOS. They need a win over Iowa and no bad MVC losses to have an outside chance.

WSU is currently only a 132 non-conf SOS, but they still have Oklahoma State to play and have the wins in the non-conf that UNI does not.

Both teams have some credibility with the selection committee having been in and won tournament games the last few years. That is not supposed to be a criteria, but both are building some name-recognition.

Illinois State has an RPI that could be nice with some wins in Hawai'i, but they basically need to win out non-con. Loyola has the record, but the SOS is awful, so likely on the outs there unless they keep the winning pct. going in conference.

UNI needs to beat both Iowa and UNC or go like 17-1 in conference to have a chance. The George Mason and Wyoming losses are bad and are a death sentence for a mid-major.

RPIForecast is still a few weeks from achieving real value, but it is starting to come into focus. It projects that 8 regular season losses would net UNI a RPI of ~38-39 - that is probably the absolute bare minimum the Panthers would need to even be in the conversation for an at-large heading into St. Louis.

Assuming a loss at UNC and a win vs. Iowa, that would mean UNI needs to go at least 15-3 in the MVC to remain relevant for purposes of the at-large discussion. 16-2 IMO would probably put them on the right side of the bubble.

That is a tall order for the Panthers and would require significant improvement and greater consistency than what they've shown so far. Not impossible, but we're probably looking at a couple standard deviations in terms of likelihood.

Play Angry wrote:RPIForecast is still a few weeks from achieving real value, but it is starting to come into focus. It projects that 8 regular season losses would net UNI a RPI of ~38-39 - that is probably the absolute bare minimum the Panthers would need to even be in the conversation for an at-large heading into St. Louis.

Assuming a loss at UNC and a win vs. Iowa, that would mean UNI needs to go at least 15-3 in the MVC to remain relevant for purposes of the at-large discussion. 16-2 IMO would probably put them on the right side of the bubble.

That is a tall order for the Panthers and would require significant improvement and greater consistency than what they've shown so far. Not impossible, but we're probably looking at a couple standard deviations in terms of likelihood.

15-3 or better will be the minimum MVC finish for any at large consideration in the MVC. That might not be enough.

bump

Yes, we're proudly going to be a one-bid league.

specialsauce wrote:Yes, we're proudly going to be a one-bid league.

Shockers and ISU can probably get away with 2 more losses the rest of the year and be considered for an at-large. Loyola .. maybe 1.

So yea .. probably a winner take all tourney for that 1 bid.

Stickboy46 wrote:

specialsauce wrote:Yes, we're proudly going to be a one-bid league.

Shockers and ISU can probably get away with 2 more losses the rest of the year and be considered for an at-large. Loyola .. maybe 1.

So yea .. probably a winner take all tourney for that 1 bid.

Interesting though, I just ran some numbers through RPIForecast. If ISUr can win their Diamondhead tourney (assuming Hawaii, Utah, Tulsa as the 3 games) then go 14-4 in the conference with losses @UNI, @WSU, @Loyola, @MSU. They will end up 22-7 with a ~29 RPI ... That's not an unrealistic scenario IMO.

Stickboy46 wrote:

Stickboy46 wrote:

specialsauce wrote:Yes, we're proudly going to be a one-bid league.

Shockers and ISU can probably get away with 2 more losses the rest of the year and be considered for an at-large. Loyola .. maybe 1.

So yea .. probably a winner take all tourney for that 1 bid.

Interesting though, I just ran some numbers through RPIForecast. If ISUr can win their Diamondhead tourney (assuming Hawaii, Utah, Tulsa as the 3 games) then go 14-4 in the conference with losses @UNI, @WSU, @Loyola, @MSU. They will end up 22-7 with a ~29 RPI ... That's not an unrealistic scenario IMO.

That sounds awesome Stickboy but you forgot two almost for sure losses for the Birds...@ ISUb and
@ SIU! Muller's teams have consistently under performed in both places so until I am proved wrong
those project as losses.

Loyola is playing their last game of the non conference schedule tonight in Toledo. If they win and finish 11-2 they should still have a shot as an at large but they must become big fans of the NC State Wolfpack.

NC State has 9 home ACC games including against UNC and Virginia. Should NC State win most of these games by a margin greater than Loyola's 2 point loss there, then it could make the Ramblers look good by comparison.

Of course they have to win tonight. Vegas has the game as a pick'em.