Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

[Cdizzle]

I like to alternate the 'e' and the 'o' so I'm right half the time. I figure it's better than intentionally misspelling. Though your point falls pretty quietly when you also spell his name wrong, and way more wrong.

[WSpringsBird]

"It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal."


I'll make a few more comments and drop the conversation.

The point of defense is to keep the other side from scoring. I get that you think some ways of preventing scores are better/more reflective of coaching acumen than others. We probably just differ a little on that.

You've spent a lot of time responding to my argument that Muller is a better defensive coach than Jacobson--an argument that I never made. I responded to your comment that Muller is one of the worst coaches in the MVC. On the offensive side of things, he has done a poor job, as I indicated above. However,over the past few years, a variety of advanced stats show that the team plays pretty good defense. I also consider Muller a good recruiter. I therefore consider him above average at two of the three main job functions of a head coach. I also think he has set up the team to be successful over the next few years, though time will tell whether I am right about that.

Overall, I think this board--which I very much enjoy--spends way too little time thinking about defense. I consider it the key to Wichita State's success. There's a reason that WSU almost always (always?) finishes at the top of the MVC when it comes to whatever advanced defensive measure you choose. And that was true before VanVleet and whoever else arrived. If you played basketball--even crappily and at as low a level as I did--it's really remarkable to see how they pressure the ball, provide help-side defense, move off the ball, fill passing lanes to prevent passes, and do all the little things that often go unnoticed.

[2livewu]

Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.

I'd say the game plan worked better than hoped for sure, but Jake knew exactly what he was doing. He knows WSU has St. Louis. He knows the players carry the attitude of Gregg. He knows how quickly things can/do head south for WSU in St Louis when a bump happens. He forced the bump. He forced jump shooters to take long jump shots during their second game in 24 hours. He gambled that if a couple rimmed out frustration would grow and things would snow ball a bit. Well, they avalanched better than he probably planned, but that's what Jake's defense does.

Education jokes about UNI aside I'm not sure I can count how many times over the last decade we've heard the same "It was clearly just an off shooting night" or "We just played poorly" excuse after a loss to UNI. I bet it's close to 85% of the time. It's because UNI plays "ugly". They force you into making the mistake, they don't force the mistake. It's a very subtle difference that leads to the "We just played bad. UNI isn't that good" thing we hear all of the time.

At this point even you say that UNI plays "good (sometimes great) defense". The reality is, after a decade the UNI defense is known as the UNI defense and just seen as status quo for UNI. I love that quote. At this point UNI plays better defense than anyone in the conference - sans WSU - night in and night out and it still isn't "respected" like WSU's. That's perfectly fine. You said it best - names change but nothing else does. It's a machine and the names on the back of the jersey's (as much as we may grow to the love the person in that jersey) don't matter.

It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal.


It's why I pointed out another "advanced metric" that had UNI 20 spots a head of Illinois State. It's pretty easy to find an advanced metric that takes your side of the argument given the dozens of stat sites and different ratings there are out there right now.


Side note...but Jake has been in the conference longer than any other coach and is top 5-10 all time in total wins and conference wins, can we (as a board) start spelling his name correctly? Not aimed directly at you, as I'd guess 70% of non-UNI fans don't get it right. I just happened to see it in your post.

I'm not really arguing your point on Jake, because he's clearly an outstanding coach, but I think you're giving him a little too much credit when you break down his "tactics" against WSU.

For the last 5 years St Louis was little more than positioning for WSU. In those years other than 2015, it's UNI's season. It's always everyone else's seasons. Desperation often leads to innovation. Last year for instance, Jake did the only thing he could. Pack it in, slow it way down and limit possessions and hope like hell WSU stays cold. It's all he could do. Pick your spots and hope. It worked and his teams execute his gameplan as well any team. But it ain't like he tricked up some special plan. Even if WSU shoots a little below it's average bad, it's an easy win if not a blowout.

FYI Fred and Ron were 1-9 from 3 then. They're gone. SO are more than half of UNI's points that game.

And they will still probably be 1-2 in the league.

If WSU shoots it close to normal it's an easy win and the worst collapse in tournament history never happens.

[shockalot]

There's a reason that WSU almost always (always?) finishes at the top of the MVC when it comes to whatever advanced defensive measure you choose. And that was true before VanVleet and whoever else arrived. If you played basketball--even crappily and at as low a level as I did--it's really remarkable to see how they pressure the ball, provide help-side defense, move off the ball, fill passing lanes to prevent passes, and do all the little things that often go unnoticed.

This is true, defense is Marshall's absolute priority and it is what every WSU player must do well to get PT. WSU has been mostly an average or even below average offensive team (last year) for most of it's 5 year run of high level success. The game against Gonzaga one of the best exceptions to this norm. It is part of what makes speculation about WSU this season interesting, because we seem to have more potential offensively then ever, but defense is more suspect. Fred and Ron (and Evan) are excellent defenders first and foremost. I see WSU as likely being much stronger offensively this year but I am more concerned about maintaining their defensive intensity. I don't see them being the best defensive team in the country this year. Nevertheless, Marshall will demand it, so it shall be very good if not great. Certainly Brown, McDuffie, and Kelly have shown themselves to be very good defensively. The biggest question mark coming into this year for WSU is guard defensive .