Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Discuss the MVC hoops season here.

Who will finish in 4th place during the 2016-17 MVC men's basketball season?

Poll ended at October 8th, 2016, 9:18 pm

Illinois State
10
18%
Missouri State
34
62%
Northern Iowa
5
9%
Wichita State
6
11%
 
Total votes : 55

Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby Cdizzle » October 7th, 2016, 2:06 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:And, in my opinion, you give Morris too much credit. I am much more confident in Shamet (whom I've seen play 3 games) than I am in Shaq. I would say Morris is more of a gamble with regard to winning the league than Shamet.


What 3 games? Canada?

He played 3 games last year before going down to the injury. I have seen him play additional times, but those are the only 'real' games I've seen him in. Keep in mind that though a freshman, he's now a redshirt freshman with 2 full summers of training, several months of participated practice, and several months of watching practice on the sideline.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... dry-shamet
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby Cdizzle » October 7th, 2016, 2:36 pm

uniftw wrote:
WSpringsBird wrote:
uniftw wrote:In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.


I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

Go back to the year before and UNI was top 20 in that stat.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

UNI is widely regarded as a defensive team with a "meh" offense. You might be the first person to ever call Jake a better offensive than defensive coach.

Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby WSpringsBird » October 7th, 2016, 2:46 pm

uniftw wrote:
WSpringsBird wrote:
uniftw wrote:In terms of proven talent 4th place is UNIs. 11 of 16 kids on the roster are new/never played in a D1 game.

The thing is, UNI has quite possibly the best X/O coach in the league.

MSU and ILSU, OTOH have 2 of the 4 worst coaches in the league....and that's saying something given the bottom of the barrel coaches in this league in places.

ISU may have the physical talent but they have the coaching talent, basketball IQ and emotional control of most junior high teams.


I would agree that Jacobson is a very good X/O coach--on offense, in particular. Muller's teams generally play very good defense. They do a nice job of pressuring the ball and are generally in the right position off the ball. I think that reflects Muller's strengths as a player--he was a much better defender than an offensive player. To move away from impressions to stats, ILSU was second in the MVC in defensive efficiency last year. Of course, WSU was first in the entire nation.

Go back to the year before and UNI was top 20 in that stat.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... efficiency

UNI is widely regarded as a defensive team with a "meh" offense. You might be the first person to ever call Jake a better offensive than defensive coach.

I'm not going to pretend to know how those things work, but I can promise you that there wasn't 77 teams better at defense than UNI last year.....or any year.

Looking at the categories it's pretty clear to see there are a few things that hurt UNI's overall rank.

1. Blocks
-UNI doesn't worry about blocking shots. Ranked 261st in the country in that category. It's more about playing good defense a head of the shot and forcing a ill advised shot and boxing out. Not fouling the shooter, which going for the block tends to do.

2. Steals
-UNI plays as good as team defense as anyone in the nation. It's not about overplaying passing lanes are trying to reach for a steal. UNI ranked 196th in steals.

Want further proof those categories hurt UNI in that metric put made UNI a better defensive team than those who rank above them?

UNI ranked 10th in the nation in fewest fouls per game with 15. By not going to blocks, by not reaching, by playing better positional team defense it keeps foul totals low. It keeps players on the court. It keeps the other team off the free throw line.

About that free throw thing. UNI opponents show the second fewest free throws in the nation last season - 13 per game. Made the second fewest free throws per game in the nation last year - 9.

Conversely ILSU was in the total 30-40% of the nation in blocks per game, steals per game and total turnovers forced per game. HOWEVER, averaged 20 fouls per game last season - 200th in the nation. That means more foul trouble for star players. Less time on the floor for them. It also means ISUr gave up 8 more free throws per game than UNI did. It means ISUR gave up 5 more points per game than UNI did through free throws.


Jake is probably a better offensive coach than Muller in that he knows his players limitations and gets them to play within a system to put them in the best situation to make plays and shots when they need to be made compared to letting the offense "free style" and letting players get one and one and try cross over jumpers and forcing a drive to the basket. That can be seen looking at kenpoms adjusted tempo stats. UNI was 346th out of 351 teams in possessions per game - 64.2 possessions. UNI averaged 69 points per game. Illinois State averaged 4 more possession, so essentially (realistically) 12 more possible points per game and averaged 67 points per game.

On that same note, I would argue that also makes Jake a better defensive coach. How many times after a UNI game did we hear the same excuses "We just played poorly", "We missed open shots", "This guy didn't get what he normally gets and if he gets that...", etc... That is entirely by scheme created by Jake. Go read the meltdown following UNI beating WSU in the semis in March. The excuses were flowing like crazy - "We shot so poorly and if our guys hit the open shots we win going away!!!!". Yeah, there is a reason Jake left those guys open. There is a reason Jake rotated the guys like he did. There's a reason Jake played the match ups like he did.


Outside of Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan all we ever hear about UNI is "A bunch of slow white farm kids" yet the team is always at the top of the conference when it comes to defense. It's not because Lucas O'Rear or Johnny Moran were stud athletes that were match up night mares. It's not because Marvin Singleton was a Tekele Cotton athlete even though they were built similarly. It's because the scheme allowed them to be where they needed to be.


What's funny is kenpom has UNI significantly a head of Illinois State in adjusted defense for last season. Pom looks at points per 100 possessions - UNI was 17 spots a head of ISU.



TL;DR

Stats, especially "advanced stats" are real easy to manipulate to prove your point. Poll the 8 other coaches in the league who is the better defensive coach - Muller or Jake - and I'd bet at least 7 go with Jake.


Just to be clear, I did not mean any of that as a knock on Jacobson. Like you, I think he's really good at understanding his players' positive attributes and limitations, and managing them accordingly. On offense, I've always liked how Northern Iowa spaces things out and moves the ball, waiting patiently for a good shot.

I don't believe it's fair to say I manipulated the advanced stats. I didn't slice and dice anything; I merely reported the headline ranking. Northern Iowa is always a very good defensive team, but they also tend to allow low points per game because they are very deliberate with their offensive possessions--which I think is a good thing--and slow the pace of the game. Nothing wrong with any of that, but I also think it's worthwhile to look at a measure of defensive output that controls for that, at least to some extent.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby uniftw » October 7th, 2016, 3:29 pm

Cdizzle wrote:Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.
I'd say the game plan worked better than hoped for sure, but Jake knew exactly what he was doing. He knows WSU has St. Louis. He knows the players carry the attitude of Gregg. He knows how quickly things can/do head south for WSU in St Louis when a bump happens. He forced the bump. He forced jump shooters to take long jump shots during their second game in 24 hours. He gambled that if a couple rimmed out frustration would grow and things would snow ball a bit. Well, they avalanched better than he probably planned, but that's what Jake's defense does.

Education jokes about UNI aside I'm not sure I can count how many times over the last decade we've heard the same "It was clearly just an off shooting night" or "We just played poorly" excuse after a loss to UNI. I bet it's close to 85% of the time. It's because UNI plays "ugly". They force you into making the mistake, they don't force the mistake. It's a very subtle difference that leads to the "We just played bad. UNI isn't that good" thing we hear all of the time.

At this point even you say that UNI plays "good (sometimes great) defense". The reality is, after a decade the UNI defense is known as the UNI defense and just seen as status quo for UNI. I love that quote. At this point UNI plays better defense than anyone in the conference - sans WSU - night in and night out and it still isn't "respected" like WSU's. That's perfectly fine. You said it best - names change but nothing else does. It's a machine and the names on the back of the jersey's (as much as we may grow to the love the person in that jersey) don't matter.

It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal.


It's why I pointed out another "advanced metric" that had UNI 20 spots a head of Illinois State. It's pretty easy to find an advanced metric that takes your side of the argument given the dozens of stat sites and different ratings there are out there right now.


Side note...but Jake has been in the conference longer than any other coach and is top 5-10 all time in total wins and conference wins, can we (as a board) start spelling his name correctly? Not aimed directly at you, as I'd guess 70% of non-UNI fans don't get it right. I just happened to see it in your post.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby Cdizzle » October 7th, 2016, 4:05 pm

I like to alternate the 'e' and the 'o' so I'm right half the time. I figure it's better than intentionally misspelling. Though your point falls pretty quietly when you also spell his name wrong, and way more wrong.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby WSpringsBird » October 7th, 2016, 4:27 pm

"It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal."


I'll make a few more comments and drop the conversation.

The point of defense is to keep the other side from scoring. I get that you think some ways of preventing scores are better/more reflective of coaching acumen than others. We probably just differ a little on that.

You've spent a lot of time responding to my argument that Muller is a better defensive coach than Jacobson--an argument that I never made. I responded to your comment that Muller is one of the worst coaches in the MVC. On the offensive side of things, he has done a poor job, as I indicated above. However,over the past few years, a variety of advanced stats show that the team plays pretty good defense. I also consider Muller a good recruiter. I therefore consider him above average at two of the three main job functions of a head coach. I also think he has set up the team to be successful over the next few years, though time will tell whether I am right about that.

Overall, I think this board--which I very much enjoy--spends way too little time thinking about defense. I consider it the key to Wichita State's success. There's a reason that WSU almost always (always?) finishes at the top of the MVC when it comes to whatever advanced defensive measure you choose. And that was true before VanVleet and whoever else arrived. If you played basketball--even crappily and at as low a level as I did--it's really remarkable to see how they pressure the ball, provide help-side defense, move off the ball, fill passing lanes to prevent passes, and do all the little things that often go unnoticed.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby 2livewu » October 7th, 2016, 9:40 pm

uniftw wrote:
Cdizzle wrote:Agreed. Now, I also think Jacobsen is a better offensive coach than Muller. But the modified pack-line defense has been their staple for years. The names change, but the defense pretty much stays the same, both in style and effectiveness.

And, while UNI does play good (sometimes great) defense which leads to many teams bemoaning their shooting performance (as a WSU fan, I definitely get where you're coming from), I think it would be fair to characterize shooting 2-24 (8%) from 3 as a bit of an anomaly, even for what turned out to be a very poor shooting team.
I'd say the game plan worked better than hoped for sure, but Jake knew exactly what he was doing. He knows WSU has St. Louis. He knows the players carry the attitude of Gregg. He knows how quickly things can/do head south for WSU in St Louis when a bump happens. He forced the bump. He forced jump shooters to take long jump shots during their second game in 24 hours. He gambled that if a couple rimmed out frustration would grow and things would snow ball a bit. Well, they avalanched better than he probably planned, but that's what Jake's defense does.

Education jokes about UNI aside I'm not sure I can count how many times over the last decade we've heard the same "It was clearly just an off shooting night" or "We just played poorly" excuse after a loss to UNI. I bet it's close to 85% of the time. It's because UNI plays "ugly". They force you into making the mistake, they don't force the mistake. It's a very subtle difference that leads to the "We just played bad. UNI isn't that good" thing we hear all of the time.

At this point even you say that UNI plays "good (sometimes great) defense". The reality is, after a decade the UNI defense is known as the UNI defense and just seen as status quo for UNI. I love that quote. At this point UNI plays better defense than anyone in the conference - sans WSU - night in and night out and it still isn't "respected" like WSU's. That's perfectly fine. You said it best - names change but nothing else does. It's a machine and the names on the back of the jersey's (as much as we may grow to the love the person in that jersey) don't matter.

It's why I don't buy into the "advanced metrics" showing Muller is a better defensive coach than Jake. Simply put, it's not true. Jake's scheme is the anti-advanced metrics - offense and defense. I've already pointed out exactly how UNI's defensive ranking is hurt in the link provided by that other poster. Steals and blocks were heavily factored into that. UNI focuses on position defense and forcing contested late clock jumpers. Steals and blocks are great when they happen, but aren't the primary goal.


It's why I pointed out another "advanced metric" that had UNI 20 spots a head of Illinois State. It's pretty easy to find an advanced metric that takes your side of the argument given the dozens of stat sites and different ratings there are out there right now.


Side note...but Jake has been in the conference longer than any other coach and is top 5-10 all time in total wins and conference wins, can we (as a board) start spelling his name correctly? Not aimed directly at you, as I'd guess 70% of non-UNI fans don't get it right. I just happened to see it in your post.


I'm not really arguing your point on Jake, because he's clearly an outstanding coach, but I think you're giving him a little too much credit when you break down his "tactics" against WSU.

For the last 5 years St Louis was little more than positioning for WSU. In those years other than 2015, it's UNI's season. It's always everyone else's seasons. Desperation often leads to innovation. Last year for instance, Jake did the only thing he could. Pack it in, slow it way down and limit possessions and hope like hell WSU stays cold. It's all he could do. Pick your spots and hope. It worked and his teams execute his gameplan as well any team. But it ain't like he tricked up some special plan. Even if WSU shoots a little below it's average bad, it's an easy win if not a blowout.

FYI Fred and Ron were 1-9 from 3 then. They're gone. SO are more than half of UNI's points that game.

And they will still probably be 1-2 in the league.

If WSU shoots it close to normal it's an easy win and the worst collapse in tournament history never happens.
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Re: Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - 4th Place

Postby shockalot » October 7th, 2016, 11:26 pm

There's a reason that WSU almost always (always?) finishes at the top of the MVC when it comes to whatever advanced defensive measure you choose. And that was true before VanVleet and whoever else arrived. If you played basketball--even crappily and at as low a level as I did--it's really remarkable to see how they pressure the ball, provide help-side defense, move off the ball, fill passing lanes to prevent passes, and do all the little things that often go unnoticed.


This is true, defense is Marshall's absolute priority and it is what every WSU player must do well to get PT. WSU has been mostly an average or even below average offensive team (last year) for most of it's 5 year run of high level success. The game against Gonzaga one of the best exceptions to this norm. It is part of what makes speculation about WSU this season interesting, because we seem to have more potential offensively then ever, but defense is more suspect. Fred and Ron (and Evan) are excellent defenders first and foremost. I see WSU as likely being much stronger offensively this year but I am more concerned about maintaining their defensive intensity. I don't see them being the best defensive team in the country this year. Nevertheless, Marshall will demand it, so it shall be very good if not great. Certainly Brown, McDuffie, and Kelly have shown themselves to be very good defensively. The biggest question mark coming into this year for WSU is guard defensive .
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