Official 2016-17 MVCfans.com Prediction - Champion

[Wufan]

Interesting interview with Coach Marshall. When asked if he thought WSU would be number 1, he said "not based on what I have seen in practice."

He was referring to being the #1 defensive team in the country, as is clear in his response. I don't think that's shocking.

Yes, Marshall thinks his team is giving effort, but it's not always focused on a clear goal. He believes there is much work to be done to play defense as a unit.

[Aargh]

There has been a lot I could have posted in the McDuffie/Shamet thread I started. Duff is getting recognition from MANY major media outlets about being one of the national breakout players to watch. Shamet is getting no pub, but every new player on the roster named Shamet as the player who would provide the biggest surprise this season.

This is looking like WSU's down year. PG is a legitimate concern. Next year, there's a JuCo pre-season AA coming in. Other future PG is a 6'5" guy who averaged 32.5 ppg in HS.\

Just for a point of reference, both Shamet and McDuffie were higher ranked coming out of HS than VanVleet and Baker, and both Baker and VanVleet are looking like legitimate shots at being on NBA rosters when the season starts.

[BirdsEyeView]

There has been a lot I could have posted in the McDuffie/Shamet thread I started. Duff is getting recognition from MANY major media outlets about being one of the national breakout players to watch. Shamet is getting no pub, but every new player on the roster named Shamet as the player who would provide the biggest surprise this season.

This is looking like WSU's down year. PG is a legitimate concern. Next year, there's a JuCo pre-season AA coming in. Other future PG is a 6'5" guy who averaged 32.5 ppg in HS.\

Just for a point of reference, both Shamet and McDuffie were higher ranked coming out of HS than VanVleet and Baker, and both Baker and VanVleet are looking like legitimate shots at being on NBA rosters when the season starts.

Some players pan out with their recruiting rankings (see Anthony Davis) and others do not despite their recruiting rankings (see Cliff Alexander #2 overall).

Those rankings mean nothing until they show up on game days.

But, glad to see you are one of the few non "butterflies and rainbows" WSU fans and are looking objectively at what could possibly happen without your AA's, especially with the point guard position. FVV was your floor coach, intangibles guy and leader of the "Play Angry" mantra. Replacing that is not as easy as hand picking a recruit and labeling him the next superstar.

[WSUShox88]

The "butterflies and rainbows" fans are going off past results and a proven reloading program.

Your analysis is based on insecurity, hope, and wishful thinking.

[Wufan]

FVV was your floor coach, intangibles guy and leader of the "Play Angry" mantra. Replacing that is not as easy as hand picking a recruit and labeling him the next superstar.

While this is certainly true, I fail to grasp what conclusion you are drawing from this tidbit. Please elaborate on what specifically this means to WSUs perceived success this season.

[Cdizzle]

FVV was your floor coach, intangibles guy and leader of the "Play Angry" mantra. Replacing that is not as easy as hand picking a recruit and labeling him the next superstar.

While this is certainly true, I fail to grasp what conclusion you are drawing from this tidbit. Please elaborate on what specifically this means to WSUs perceived success this season.

Agreed. This keeps getting thrown out as extremely relevant. Several people keep comparing incoming WSU players to FVV and Baker. Which is fine on it's own. But then to say "well, he isn't FVV so you aren't going to win the league" isn't fine on it's own. It would be ok if there was another FVV in the league, and/or if WSU had not been experiencing tremendous success in the league before FVV arrived, but neither of those are the case.

[BirdsEyeView]

FVV was your floor coach, intangibles guy and leader of the "Play Angry" mantra. Replacing that is not as easy as hand picking a recruit and labeling him the next superstar.

While this is certainly true, I fail to grasp what conclusion you are drawing from this tidbit. Please elaborate on what specifically this means to WSUs perceived success this season.

Agreed. This keeps getting thrown out as extremely relevant. Several people keep comparing incoming WSU players to FVV and Baker. Which is fine on it's own. But then to say "well, he isn't FVV so you aren't going to win the league" isn't fine on it's own. It would be ok if there was another FVV in the league, and/or if WSU had not been experiencing tremendous success in the league before FVV arrived, but neither of those are the case.

Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.

[Cdizzle]

Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.

I guess I haven't seen that many people writing off personnel losses or treating winning the league as a foregone conclusion. I think there have been several of us saying just because some guys who were 10s graduated doesn't mean they aren't being replaced by 7s or 8s. Which is as good as anyone else has. Now, that's a bit speculative, but so is any speculation by other fans that the replacements would be 4s or 5s (if you'll allow a crude 1-10 rating system). Only losing 1 starter can be a great thing, or a not so great thing. It's a great thing if you went 17-1 the previous year. It's maybe not such a great thing if you went 5-13 the previous year. If you're in the middle of that (the case for ISUr), I could see it being good or not good. And, once again, you list having players getting older, smarter, more experienced as if the entire WSU roster spent the summer roasting marshmallows.

I agree with you that the gap has closed, and we may be pretty much discussing semantics, but it's October so what the hell. Based on what I've seen: I think Lee will still be Lee (which may be the best PG in the league this year, though I wager by not a giant margin), I'm very bullish on McIntosh's development, but pretty bearish on the improvement on the rest of the core ISUr core guys. I may turn out to be all wet, but that's what I see. McIntosh is the one that took a big step forward last year. The other guys were still chuckers. I admittedly don't know much about what ISUr adds.

I have posted this before, but I think this year's winner will be more in the 13-15 win range, not the 16-18 win range we've seen . If that is the case it will definitely allow for a close race (and not just a 2-team race) where the middle of the pack will also have a big impact on the final standings.

[Aargh]

I think WSU is going to have a Jekkyl/Hyde kind of year. Some nights you'll wonder how they could beat anybody and some nights you'll wonder how anybody could beat them.

One intangible that's important is the knowledge of what it takes to win and the fortitude to do whatever it takes to use that knowledge every night of a pretty long and busy season. Baker and VanVleet had that understanding and a "refuse to lose" mentality.

The current Shockers haven't really had to dig deep into their own skills and put out some extra effort (that maybe they didn't even know they had) when that's what has to happen to win a game. Maybe it's been a little too easy for the returning players. If the Shox have developed an entitlement mentality, they won't win the league.

[Wufan]

Sure, I will clarify.

I voted for WSU to win the league. I believe WSU wins the league this year.
However, some of your fan base has posted that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that you will win the league and are writing off the personnel losses (at least I've perceived this in the messages) of two AA's due to the recruiting class and Shamet. They look at the 4 game cushion you won the league with last year as evidence and think there is no chance somebody can close that gap.

I would argue that the 4 game cushion you won with....that the loss of FVV and Baker (+ glue guy Wessel) can nearly equal 4 games difference. Plus, you factor in a team like ISUr who only lost 1 starter last year...each player is a year older, smarter, more experienced, etc. and suddenly the gap has closed significantly.

Again, I still believe you win the league, but the gap has closed significantly and there are a lot more question marks, especially at point guard, for WSU than there has been in recent years.

I guess I haven't seen that many people writing off personnel losses or treating winning the league as a foregone conclusion. I think there have been several of us saying just because some guys who were 10s graduated doesn't mean they aren't being replaced by 7s or 8s. Which is as good as anyone else has. Now, that's a bit speculative, but so is any speculation by other fans that the replacements would be 4s or 5s (if you'll allow a crude 1-10 rating system). Only losing 1 starter can be a great thing, or a not so great thing. It's a great thing if you went 17-1 the previous year. It's maybe not such a great thing if you went 5-13 the previous year. If you're in the middle of that (the case for ISUr), I could see it being good or not good. And, once again, you list having players getting older, smarter, more experienced as if the entire WSU roster spent the summer roasting marshmallows.

I agree with you that the gap has closed, and we may be pretty much discussing semantics, but it's October so what the hell. Based on what I've seen: I think Lee will still be Lee (which may be the best PG in the league this year, though I wager by not a giant margin), I'm very bullish on McIntosh's development, but pretty bearish on the improvement on the rest of the core ISUr core guys. I may turn out to be all wet, but that's what I see. McIntosh is the one that took a big step forward last year. The other guys were still chuckers. I admittedly don't know much about what ISUr adds.

I have posted this before, but I think this year's winner will be more in the 13-15 win range, not the 16-18 win range we've seen . If that is the case it will definitely allow for a close race (and not just a 2-team race) where the middle of the pack will also have a big impact on the final standings.

This is almost exactly how I feel.

I've not noticed anyone that thinks WSU winning is a foregone conclusion or that believes that the next WSU PG believes that the player will be as good as Fred. I will say, however, that Fred was first team all-conference for three years. Before Fred, Mal Armstead was 2nd team All MVC. Before Armstead, Joe Ragland was first team All-MVC. Tours Murray was 2nd team All-Conference as the PG the year before that, and the year before that a Clevin Hannah was second team All-Conference. That's seven consecutive years where the WSU PG was one of the top 10 players in the league. This might be the year that changes.

Other team's players got better. That includes WSU.

WSU will probably win something less than 16 games which will put two or three other teams in a position to win the league.

I will add that, while I very much like the top four players at ISU; I'm not bullish on the returning role players or recruiting class. There was a good JUCO wing guard and the seven footer has some potential. One of the JUCO bigs should be serviceable. I think ISU will only go about 8 deep. Their eight will be good enough to beat UNI and WSU, but they might drop a few unexpectedly.