TheObserver wrote:Redbirdgrad wrote:TheObserver wrote:
Considering that WSU leaving would be a major change from the status quo, I just put two and two together. And your counter was simply a wow.
Yes, 2 and 2 together does equal a dip. I agree with that notion. But 16? Where did you pull that number out of? That's what I"m curious about...
Creighton and WSU were pretty similar in stature. Creighton left and the conference dropped 4 spots in the pecking order, despite WSU having high RPI's. I'm assuming that if WSU leaves, a similar drop would likely take place, unless you think either a.) the conference will replace them with a team like Gonzaga or b.) a team from the Valley is going to emerge to the level of a WSU, which it has yet to demonstrate.
And this is where I can tell you have no clue how the RPI operates. I'm thinking this is ShockerFever in disguise, and if so, congrats on having me go back on the 2 weeks. Clever(ish). If not, I'm sorry to loop you in with someone of that nature.
Currently, Wichita State has an RPI of 82 and a SOS of 192 and more importantly a RATING of .5589. Will that improve? Most likely yes. How much is yet to be determined, so let's work off of the data we know for a minute.
If we were to replace Wichita State with the average (actually median) team in Division 1... that's San Jose State with a .4948. For comparison's sake, Loyola (our replacement for Creighton) is a .5262. So it's doable to think we can get someone above .4948. But let's just say we get San Jose State. That means for the Valley as a whole to not move a single spot on the conference rankings we have to improve by the difference between .5589 and .4948 that we "lost" from Wichita. That's .0641. Who among us can improve .0641? Northern Iowa is currently .5044. If they were to improve their RPI into the 70's or 80's (like Wichita is now), that's getting everything back we're currently giving up with "losing" Wichita. Even if they don't make that jump, let's say they get .03 back next year... can a couple other Valley teams make a small improvement? Maybe a Bradley who's doing better, or someone else? Most likely. The Valley is down this year.
So while losing Wichita will hurt (losing any good team will), dropping from 12 to 16 is a ridiculous statement not backed up historically or by using any data points at all.
We can project forward all you want too... but I'm using today's numbers which is all you can truly go by. Most likely the number we have to get back isn't .0641, it's probably closer to .10. This is why I think we'll see a small decline, but not as much as Shocker fans will lead you to believe. The Valley doesn't live and die by them.