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TheObserver wrote:

BuBrave2006 wrote:Hacksaw, where do you get the percentages to win each game for the weighted probabilities. I find it odd that Bradley is only 40% to beat Evansville at home. I would think that would be higher.

Given Bradley's and Evansville's play of late, I think that's pretty fair honestly.

I think the only thing fair about that game would be a refund.

Stickboy46 wrote:

BuBrave2006 wrote:Hacksaw, where do you get the percentages to win each game for the weighted probabilities. I find it odd that Bradley is only 40% to beat Evansville at home. I would think that would be higher.

I believe he has said before that its using the Sagarin predictor.

You can read here for an explanation: The MVC Report - thanks again to Matt for doing this.

BUbrave2006, if we don't beat UNI Wednesday, all non-PIG scenarios are out the window. But yes, sagarin is wrong about Saturday....if we lose to Marty at home.....

A lot of impactful games this last week. ISUr squeaks by MSU as Church can't hit a freebie and the Bears think they need a three to win a 1 point game. WSU blows out SIU on the second half, again behind Conner Frankamp. He's averaging 15 over the last 6 and is now shooting .522 in MVC play from deep, .438 over the season.

LUC scores 40 in the second half (after 24 in the first). Sycamores go down in flames. UNI again demonstrates their dominance over the best of the rest with a 3 point win at home over the Braves. Marty working on another extension as the Aces beat the Bulldogs...that's 4 in a row for UE.

MSU at Drake is the most interesting game this weekend as Lusk tries to keep his job for another year. A Drake win almost guarantees MSU plays on Thursday.

The final 32K+ probabilities (unweighted):

Weighted probabilities:

It was fun watching our slimmest of 6 hopes stay alive with the missed 3 by the bears. Need a whole lot more help the last 3...also, winning our own games would be nice. Ive never seen our conference this bad

We just received our all-session tickets. Section 105 Row G. ISU will be around there...

Yeah I got mine last week, same section

Welp the probabilities have spoken and it will be UNI vs MSU in the 3 vs 6. That ultimately means another 1 and done at Arch Madness for the Panthers.