Status/Future of the Valley

by **Chuck A** » March 30th, 2024, 9:24 am

As mentioned in another thread, NIL and the Transfer Portal is killing or at the least, weakening the Mid Majors (MWC, A-10, The Valley, AAC, SoCon, Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC and the WCC). I believe it'll be a minute before the P5 (B1G, SEC, Big 12, ACC & Big East) break away to form their own Association. Even if Football breaks away, the Basketball portion will take some time. In the meantime, one way for the MVC to not to be the feeder system for the BIGS is to move up in ranking status as a whole. This season, the Valley was the 9th rated Conference behind the P6, MWC and the A-10. There are a whole lotta big "ifs" pertaining to Conference growth. This offseason, we lost 3 coaches and seemingly got good to slightly above average replacements (any of the 3 UIC candidates would've been an upgrade!). This league has also been good this past season in recruiting both high school, JC, D2 and the TP (transfer portal). With the demise of the PAC-12, there is 1 less big Conference we have to compete with. This league has always garnered talent. Just a matter of keeping it.

It appears to me that if the Valley continues to grow, it can reach at least the 7th rated league behind the MWC. With better scheduling, predicated on a willingness of others of the Mid-majors and a game from the P5, the league could better position itself to garner a couple more bids for a total of three. The higher the league status and NCAA bids increases the Conference status and its financial ability to be a player in NIL and to hold onto some of its better players. Although the P5 will continue to try and kill off the Mids, I don't think they'll succeed. I also don't believe the NCAA Tournament will expand just to add a 10th place, below .500 conference team, NC State not withstanding. They'll want to, but it won't happen.

There will be too many P5 schools looking to grab one or two TP players to totally deplete the stock for Mid-Majors. Those conferences will get their fair share. Me being the eternal optimist that I am, I truly believe better is in the offing for The Valley.

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by **ReZyNeZy** » March 30th, 2024, 9:46 am

The problem doesnt lie in NIL on its own. Its the combination of NIL, Transfers, and the unwillingness from P5 schools to cooperate with NCAA regulations regarding such. NCAA lost control of football, and everything just spiraled from there. NIL and the Portal structure of today came about from lawsuits and litigation. Every time the NCAA attempts to crack down on NIL and the Portal, they get sued.

ALL decisions being made as to NIL and Transfers are only being made with Football in mind as well. THis hurts the integrity of CBB and all other college sports across the board where money and perks for play, are not going to be as grand as a Ford Ranger that Alabama provides their football teams. In my opinion, the NCAA needs to wash their hands with football. Let the conferences, and NIL protocols for CFB become completely separate from the conferences and protocols of other sports. NCAA also needs to fight their legal battles well. Winning these suits will allow them to gain control of the situation again.

NIL can stay the same, but transfers need to be cracked down on. THe was it should be is one and only one. THe only time you should ever be able to get multiple is if you are going up a division, or your coach leaves. Then you get another transfer. If you decide to transfer outside of these rules, the old penalties apply.

Valley also had a lot of coach turnover as well so I don't see a need to panic as of yet. Coaches leaving will cause people to abandon ship.

Valley was ranked 9th overall in terms of ratings and RPI and 10th overall by the new Ken Pom systems. Only Mid Major outranking us for the 9 hole is the A-10. I personally don't count the MW as a mid-major anymore. They will most likely take the place of the PAC-10.

by **tribecalledquest** » March 30th, 2024, 10:20 am

Other than the narrative and emotion involved - where is the evidence that the portal is "killing" non P6 leagues like the Valley? I know fans rally around this narrative but the product on the court and the overlying metrics don't back this up.

by **ReZyNeZy** » March 30th, 2024, 10:44 am

tribecalledquest wrote:Other than the narrative and emotion involved - where is the evidence that the portal is "killing" non P6 leagues like the Valley? I know fans rally around this narrative but the product on the court and the overlying metrics don't back this up.

Most people cite high talent turnover rates as this. Also the fact that the attendance for Mid Major games isn't there. But this is just a problem of good vs bad teams. Penn St played a game in their old gym this year because they could barely fill up the current arena. I think people believe its a "slippery slope". Where Power schools will not care enough to fill games with good mid majors for fear of actually loosing. ISU had this problem. No one wants to play you at your house unless you give them money to do so, or its a neutral site. People believe that eventually the P6 schools are going to break away and form their own association and leave mid majors in the dust. Comments from the SEC commissioner come to mind, but his point is now moot seeing as the SEC did horribly in March Madness this year

by **MissouriValleyUnite** » March 30th, 2024, 12:09 pm

The Valley just finished as the 9th best league in America. This year was the strongest the league has been since 2013. Only a perfect storm prevented it from being a 2-bid league: what Torvik coined "the strongest bubble ever" and a record-setting number (5) of bid thieves. Dan Gavitt is on record that 35 of 36 at-larges were selected entering Saturday. Committee chairman Charles McClelland has said Indiana St (+ Seton Hall and Oklahoma) were agreed by the committee to be in the field entering Saturday and those 3 were only scrubbed late Saturday night when that evening's slate saw 4 bid steals (the 5th was earlier in the week).

As fans we just have to reframe our expectations in the route to get there. College basketball is year-to-year free agency now. That affects everyone. Utah St returned 0 points this year and was an 8-seed. If the Valley can be #9 this past year, it certainly can next year and years to come. NIL and the portal were around this year too. If you're worried, the best way to help is to donate to your school's NIL, attend games, and then reward yourself by having a blast in STL. If fans aren't putting money into NIL (donations) or their school's pockets (ticket revenue), they aren't really helping.

Also, it's a near-certainty the tournament is expanding to at least 72. That would put 2017 Illinois St and 2024 Indiana St in the tournament. Big XII Commissioner is pushing for 76. Yes, most of those spots will go to P5s, but that doesn't mean a top-40 MVC team isn't grabbing one of them.

The league has lost/will lose in DeVries and Schertz, but has added 2 proven good coaches in Cuonzo and Nagy. McCollum should be in royal blue or powder blue next week. SIU and Missouri St just upped their pay, and Indiana St is about to execute a big increase as well.

by **tribecalledquest** » March 30th, 2024, 12:53 pm

MissouriValleyUnite wrote:The Valley just finished as the 9th best league in America. This year was the strongest the league has been since 2013. Only a perfect storm prevented it from being a 2-bid league: what Torvik coined "the strongest bubble ever" and a record-setting number (5) of bid thieves. Dan Gavitt is on record that 35 of 36 at-larges were selected entering Saturday. Committee chairman Charles McClelland has said Indiana St (+ Seton Hall and Oklahoma) were agreed by the committee to be in the field entering Saturday and those 3 were only scrubbed late Saturday night when that evening's slate saw 4 bid steals (the 5th was earlier in the week).

As fans we just have to reframe our expectations in the route to get there. College basketball is year-to-year free agency now. That affects everyone. Utah St returned 0 points this year and was an 8-seed. If the Valley can be #9 this past year, it certainly can next year and years to come. NIL and the portal were around this year too. If you're worried, the best way to help is to donate to your school's NIL, attend games, and then reward yourself by having a blast in STL. If fans aren't putting money into NIL (donations) or their school's pockets (ticket revenue), they aren't really helping.

Also, it's a near-certainty the tournament is expanding to at least 72. That would put 2017 Illinois St and 2024 Indiana St in the tournament. Big XII Commissioner is pushing for 76. Yes, most of those spots will go to P5s, but that doesn't mean a top-40 MVC team isn't grabbing one of them.

The league has lost/will lose in DeVries and Schertz, but has added 2 proven good coaches in Cuonzo and Nagy. McCollum should be in royal blue or powder blue next week. SIU and Missouri St just upped their pay, and Indiana St is about to execute a big increase as well.

Well said.

Yes the Valley is losing good players. The Valley is also adding good players.

As I get older I don't really care about the P5 v mid-major thing anymore. It's a waste of time. The MVC teams need to worry about the other 11 in the league and then competing against the A-10's, C-USA's, etc of the world. That's the competition - not the Big Ten or Big 12.

by **Drakey** » March 30th, 2024, 1:32 pm

Obviously the NIL and unlimited transfers are killing mid-majors. I'm not even sure it isn't going to eventually hurt the Big East also, as they don't have football money and are not large state universities for the most part with hundreds of thousands of alums to donate. As long as this is the system in place we are going to be a feeder league. We already are. There is no way we are ever going to keep any top players if they are really able to go get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to transfer. all we can do is try to get players for two years. We are in the same situation as JUCOs. Hopefully we can be the top feeder league. It seems like we are now.

by **tribecalledquest** » March 30th, 2024, 2:21 pm

Drakey wrote:Obviously the NIL and unlimited transfers are killing mid-majors. I'm not even sure it isn't going to eventually hurt the Big East also, as they don't have football money and are not large state universities for the most part with hundreds of thousands of alums to donate. As long as this is the system in place we are going to be a feeder league. We already are. There is no way we are ever going to keep any top players if they are really able to go get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to transfer. all we can do is try to get players for two years. We are in the same situation as JUCOs. Hopefully we can be the top feeder league. It seems like we are now.

There is no proof to what you are saying. I know you WANT it to be true but that doesn't make it so.

I also don't remember when the MVC was ever equal to the P5 leagues. The balance of power has not shifted in any way, shape or form. It is like it always has been. Sure the players cycle in and out quicker and more frequently, but nothing else has changed with the power structure.

by **ReZyNeZy** » March 30th, 2024, 3:03 pm

Drakey wrote:Obviously the NIL and unlimited transfers are killing mid-majors. I'm not even sure it isn't going to eventually hurt the Big East also, as they don't have football money and are not large state universities for the most part with hundreds of thousands of alums to donate. As long as this is the system in place we are going to be a feeder league. We already are. There is no way we are ever going to keep any top players if they are really able to go get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to transfer. all we can do is try to get players for two years. We are in the same situation as JUCOs. Hopefully we can be the top feeder league. It seems like we are now.

Like I said, NIL by itself is good, but NIL coupled with unlimited transfers is the issue. Players should be able to get sponsorships and be able to be supported by the community around them. Hopefully NCAA wins their lawsuit over transfers and we can get the rules back into place sometime soon, but the Valley had a lot of coaching turnover this year. People will leave when their coach does. The amount of doom and gloom I'm seeing when there is no proof to support is on the level of the VU forum. And I am a frequent poster there...

by **TBS_20** » March 30th, 2024, 3:05 pm

What should be considered is 2/3 teams will eventually leave. It's not like last time where there was two ideal options. Now we're down to Denver, omaha, umkc, bellarmine, and nku. While I like the last two let's not kid ourself. Bellarmine and nku are a long way from Belmont and Murray state