DoubleJayAlum wrote:SubGod22 wrote:DoubleJayAlum wrote:Hello guys - long time, no see!
I came back to read up on WSU's potential move and to see if Drake was going to hire our assistant as their new HC.
I have a question on the whole WSU to the AAC --- MONEY!!!
Anyone have any idea how much of the TV money WSU would receive if they made the move? The AAc's TV contract is for football and basketball. We all know that football is more valuable to TV networks than hoops (which sucks!). I suspect that the AAC contract doesn't divide out the monies to say x% is for football and y% is for basketball, so it probably isn't as simple as saying that WSU gets one full share of the basketball money.
As a result, 1) what percentage of a full share do we think WSU would be likely to get and 2) what is fair for them to ask for? Also, does WSU get a full share of the NCAA tourney credits earned and banked to date or only an equal share for all units earned AFTER they join. If there is a hold up in taking WSU, I suspect these are the issues that would cause the holdup. Thoughts?
The working theory is that Wichita would get around 30% of a share of the TV money. I believe that is about what the Big East had before it split. I believe that would be around $600k under their current deal. Which is definitely better than what we get from the MVC.
I don't have anything for the second part of your question. Personally, I'm fine with whatever they'd decide as the future is what's important and if we have to sacrifice a few things early so be it. And considering the run that next years team will be capable of, I'd prefer to be in the AAC next year so we don't leave behind what could be generated there. I also believe the AAC has a more favorable distribution of credits earned than the MVC does so that would be nice.
Thanks Sub.
If 30% is the magic number, does WSU expect to start getting 30% from day 1? Would WSU be willing to wait to get any payout until the current TV contract expires and is replaced with a new one? I could be wrong, but I don't see ESPN, especially in the present environment where they are hemorrhaging cash and tanking Disney's stock value, agreeing to pay more in the middle of a contract period for a non-football addition. It may also be a stretch to believe the other conference schools will be willing to give up a portion of the monies they are currently due (budgets have already been established counting on that money).
I could be totally wrong, but I would think that if a move were to happen, it wouldn't be until a new contract is set to start so the current conference members do not have to literally give up money to add another school (unless, of course, WSU agrees to accept zero dollars until the current contract expires, which would seemingly be pretty unlikely because they wouldn't be getting MVC NCAA tourney units distributed during that period either...)
From what I've gathered talking to AAC fans, adding us into the current distribution wouldn't take much away from the others. It also wouldn't be 600k for us. Many fans feel that our addition could potentially add more than what they'd lose, in NCAA tourney credits. Both ours, and potentially the extra team or two that might be able to get in with an increased RPI and SOS by being able to play us twice and maybe some of the weaker teams less.
They're also close to the end of the TV deal with ESPN. Their commish is a former TV guy, but who knows how much that really means. He understands the business though. I've heard that Navy has had an independent deal for their football that is supposed to roll into the AAC in the next year or two, and the thinking is that pairing that with an addition of Wichita could help lead to an early renegotiation and a modest boost in payouts. Some seem to think that ESPN will want to keep the AAC from hitting the open market where content could go up more than they want if Fox or CBS or another wants to get in on it for additional content. The AAC is also home to UConn women's basketball which does attract viewership as well. I have no idea how that works, but I've seen multiple fans, inside and outside of the AAC, that believe that when a new deal is worked out with ESPN, that each share would end up around 5M per school. Which would be 1.5M for Wichita based on the 30% figures. That's all fan talk but some of those guys follow this stuff way too much. The AAC is a solid football conference and I believe has consistently been the best of the non power conferences the past few years. That may carry some weight. And while their basketball was down this year, they'd still be home to Memphis, UConn, Cinci, SMU and Temple which you'd think would typically be pretty strong. Jury may still be out on SMU. But you add in a Wichita to go with the potential of a Houston and Tulsa. Tulane and UCF have made strong basketball hires recently so who knows if they really improve or not. The content provided by the conference is fairly strong.
I would guess that we wouldn't get credit payouts for anything earned before our addition. I'm fine with that as I'm looking down the road and the payoff is much greater than a handful of credits we'd be leaving behind. I just hope this gets done and the sooner the better. And as someone else said, hanging around another year in the MVC, should we get the invite, doesn't do anyone much good, other than the potential credits we would earn next year. And I don't know what the AAC wouldn't want those in hand considering I believe Wichita will be one of the favorites to make a deep run.