I think the MVC lost a tournament bid tonight

by **CBB_Fan** » December 1st, 2012, 10:44 pm

I thought before the season that the MVC had a very real chance to get 3 tournament bids this season. I don't think that is the case anymore. I think Creighton will get an at-large bid barring any major meltdown, and I think at least one of Wichita St, Illinois St, or UNI will get a bid.

But that third bid is gone, I believe. We had chances to really improve the league's RPI today, and fell barely short on each one. But come selection time, there will be no moral victories. I think the league will be tough and balanced, but all that will mean is that the top will have more losses.

A lot of the teams that have lost bad games could upset the top of the conference, and that will make it very hard to get the three teams I predicted in the preseason. In order for that to happen, the Valley needed to get a couple of significant victories in the non-conference part of the schedule, enough so that conference losses wouldn't be as much of a drag.

Please discuss whether you agree or disagree that the MVC has probably blown too many chances to get that elusive third bid.

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by **Ace Dad** » December 1st, 2012, 10:49 pm

The MVC Tournament winner and either the Jays or the Shocks will get a bid.

by **CBB_Fan** » December 1st, 2012, 10:51 pm

Ace Dad wrote:The MVC Tornament winner and either the Jays or the Shocks will get a bid.

I still think UNI and Illinois State can get a bid, but they'll need to be absolutely on fire during conference play. Both will wish they could have beaten Louisville by the end of the season.

by **pafan** » December 1st, 2012, 10:57 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:
Ace Dad wrote:The MVC Tornament winner and either the Jays or the Shocks will get a bid.

I still think UNI and Illinois State can get a bid, but they'll need to be absolutely on fire during conference play.

Like win the conference on fire, or just 14-4 on fire?

by **Khan4Cats** » December 1st, 2012, 11:10 pm

I've thought all along that the Valley was a 2-bid league and with luck might get a third. I stick with that.

No one really has a signature win yet. The best is probably Wichita's at VCU. We will see how VCU fares in the A-10 if that holds up over the year, but it is a road win. Next is probably Creighton's over Wisconsin, then Wichita over a question mark Iowa team. That and a bunch of near misses.

We have some chances for good ones coming up, Drake and UNI both host St. Mary's, UNI goes to George Mason and UNLV, Evansville goes to Butler, Wichita State goes to Tennessee and Creighton has a pair of BCS roadies to get.

It will still probably come down to whether there is any separation at the top of the Valley again this year. Last year it pretty much guaranteed the top 2 in, we would have had a third had the Redbirds pulled it off in St. Louis. If a third team breaks away at the top, we may go into STL with three teams looking at a bid with hopes of an upset 4th, but I don't see it.

by **MoValley John** » December 1st, 2012, 11:11 pm

Who cares? It's only Money. It's only prestige for the conference. Its only separating a good conference from the rest of the mids. Knock off a few pelts in league and that is all that matters. Who cares that the Valley has pissed five or six bids down their leg the last decade? That's only a few million each school over time. That won't help, will it?

I had my shoulder scoped Thursday morning and had a few complications. I'm alright now, but was in extreme pain for the last day and a half. After that, if you want me to care about whether or not the Valley will get another bid or two, I don't care. My malady ain't crap, though. People that have suffered real medical problems care even less. Who cares?

by **CBB_Fan** » December 1st, 2012, 11:24 pm

pafan wrote:
CBB_Fan wrote:
Ace Dad wrote:The MVC Tornament winner and either the Jays or the Shocks will get a bid.

I still think UNI and Illinois State can get a bid, but they'll need to be absolutely on fire during conference play.

Like win the conference on fire, or just 14-4 on fire?

On fire would be placing second or first without any really bad losses, and hopefully 2-3 victories against the other top teams.

by **ptownbraves** » December 2nd, 2012, 8:17 am

I think 3 bids is a bit optimistic at this point. The Valley is going to be a tough conference this year and most every school is going to be competitive. I don't know that any school is going to run away with it this year.

by **Wufan** » December 2nd, 2012, 8:20 am

UNI and Evansville still have a couple of games to make up some ground, but to this point they haven't proven they are capable of grabbing a signature win, and even if they do, their resume will be suspect against other bubble teams. Illinois State and Drake might have the potential to make a significant splash in the MVC, but it might be at the expense of WSU and Creighton. My feeling is that WSU and CU are the only teams that have a legit at large chance, but Drake, Evansville, Ill St, and UNI will be looking to make a splash. To do so, they will have to separate themselves in conference with wins over each other and Creighton/WSU. The Valley will eat it's young and be a two bid league.

by **Snaggletooth** » December 2nd, 2012, 8:27 am

Teams earn bids, not conferences (I will caveat this with a good conference performance give certain teams more opportunities). Here is where team are at right now:

CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY

WSU (7-0): a 16-7 finish give them a mid-30's RPI. Stronger finish will solidify their at-large credentials. AF, Tennessee and S. Miss are big games that will signs of where this team is really at and are they worthy of being ranked.

CU (6-1): One hicup so far, but bounced back nicely. They just need to finish out strong with non-conference season and a 17-6 finish give them a mid-30's RPI, just like WSU a stronger finish strengthens their at-large credentials.

ON THE BUBBLE
ISUR (5-2): A win versus Louisville would have said "we are a NCAA team". Wyoming is a must win and they are going to have to earn their way through MVC play. A 18-5 give them a mid-30's RPI.

UNI (3-2): A 17-6 finish kicks their RPI into the mid-30's. The strength of their non-conference schedule still leaves them with plenty of opportunties with George Mason, Iowa, UNLV and St. Marys. Of course if they don't win them then 17-2 finish would be pretty hard to do.

Drake (2-3): They have St. Mary's and Iowa St left on their schedule that can help their resume. They will need 19-4 finish to get their RPI to the mid-30's. That bubble is getting small.

BUBBLE IS CLOSE TO BUSTING - So you are saying their still is chance?
ISUB (3-2): The put all their non-conference success in NM and Mississippi, well they lost to NM. They are now left finishing 16-3. That bubble is getting small.

Evansville (4-3): They have two games on their schedule that potentially could help their resume, Murray St and Butler. Like Drake and ISUB, their bubble is getting small as they need to finish 21-4 to have a mid-30's RPI. Losing 1 or 2 against against Murray St or Butler almost seals their fate as I don't see them going 21-2 the rest of way .

Bradley (5-2): Could have, would have, should have - lost opportunity yesterday against Michigan. Their bubble burst yesterday. Terrible Non-conference schedule has at least created a illusion of progress but they have to be almost perfect the rest of the way to have any shot.

SIU (3-1): Hinson is trying to resurrect their reputation and their winning tradition and scheduled as such. Unless you think they are going to pull a miracle out, their bubble is busted.

BUBBLE BUSTED

SWMO (0-5): Doesn't matter how weak or how strong you schedule - I you don't win the games on your schedule it is irrelevant anyway.