2017 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – updated Feb. 20

Hacksaw’s updated #ArchMadness seeding probabilities!

With 10 conference games remaining, there are 1,024 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The order used for the RPI tiebreaker varies for each scenario based on the projected RPI’s from rpiforecast.com.

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as an equally-weighted possibility. For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining conference games with weighted odds attached to them (using Sagarin’s Predictor). These odds are used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

2017 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – updated Feb. 16

With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The order used for the RPI tiebreaker is listed in the chart, however as some teams have RPI’s very near one another, it’s possible some movement could affect the probabilities.

 

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as an equally-weighted possibility. For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining conference games with weighted odds attached to them (using Sagarin’s Predictor). These odds are used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

Updated Arch Madness seeding probabilities – February 13

Thanks to Hacksaw for his continued support!

With 20 conference games remaining, there are 1,048,576 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The order used for the RPI tiebreaker is listed in the chart, however as some teams have RPI’s very near one another, it’s possible some movement could affect the probabilities.

 

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as an equally-weighted possibility. For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 20 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (using Sagarin’s Predictor). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

2017 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – updated Feb. 10

Since the last update- Wichita State and Illinois State have secured the top two seeds and UNI now has the inside position for the 3 seed after an 0-5 start in MVC play.  What to watch – The battle to avoid Thursday night.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

2017 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – Updated Feb. 6

Plenty of changes since the last update- With their win over Illinois State the Shockers become the statistical favorite to win the top seed, however, if both teams finish 17-1, the RPI tiebreaker currently favors the Redbirds.  Three of the Thursday night Arch Madness participants are nearly set and UNI has gone from last place to nearly assuring itself a date on Friday in STL instead.

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2017 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – Updated Feb. 2

Back by popular demand – one of everyone’s favorite features of The MVC Report.  Thanks to Hacksaw for his continued contribution.

 

 

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Missouri Valley Conference Power Rankings – Updated Jan. 16

For the first time since this site was founded, Illinois State sits atop the MVCfans.com power rankings. It is also the first time that the Redbirds have been alone in first place in the Valley standings this late in a season since 1998.  While that is an impressive feat that deserves recognition,  I think most long time fans of the Valley would agree that the rise of the Redbirds isn’t shocking as Coach Muller assembled a roster that has shown improvement in recent years and a breakout season appeared imminent.  Perhaps more noteworthy (and unexpected) than Illinois State’s ascendance, UNI finds itself in new territory at the bottom of the rankings for the first time despite Sunday’s win over Drake.  The Panthers fell precipitously since our last update after losses to Iowa and UNC followed by an 0-5 Valley start.

MVC Power Rankings

1) Illinois State 6-0
2) Wichita State 5-1
3) SIU 4-2
4) Loyola 3-3 
5) Missouri State 3-3
6) Bradley 3-3
7) Drake 3-3
8 ) Indiana State 1-5
9) Evansville 1-5
10) UNI 1-5 

 

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Report: Wichita State being considered for AAC membership

According to well known college basketball writer Jon Rothstein, the American Athletic Conference has discussed the possibility of adding Wichita State to it’s league membership.

“Adding the Wichita State brand to a league that already has UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Houston and SMU would make that a four-to-five bid conference,” one coach told FanRag Sports. “It’s a no-brainer for the American.”

link: Report: Wichita State mentioned as possible addition to American Athletic Conference
You can discuss this on the MVCfans.com message board: MVCfans.com 2016-17 men’s basketball discussion

MVCfans.com Pre-Turkey Day Power Rankings

Is it too early to try and rank the Valley’s teams? Of course.  Will that stop us?  Of course not.  As most of us prepare for a Thanksgiving weekend filled with eating too much and watching sports, here is our appetizer – the first version of the MVC Power Rankings.

MVC Power Rankings

1) Wichita Sate 4-0 - Shockers have been impressive and really haven’t been tested in four games so far, but that will change over the next couple of days.  A win over LSU today sets up a likely Final 4 rematch against Rick Pitino and Louisville.
2) UNI 3-1  – Only a close loss to a ranked Xavier team keeps the Panthers from ascending to the top spot in the initial rankings.  Victories over Arizona State and Oklahoma will provide some resume benefit in March, but it is a second opportunity against Xavier on Saturday that provides UNI a chance to stamp themselves as a bona fide at large candidate.
3) Loyola 5-1- Ramblers went 2-1 at the Paradise Jam including wins over Oral Roberts and Washington State after posting three easy wins over overmatched foes. Saturday’s road game at North Carolina State should tell us much more about Loyola and whether they are a contender or pretender.
4) Missouri State 3-0 - Let’s start by saying the Bears’ non-conference slate leaves something to be desired.  Wins over Alabama A&M, Jacksonville St, and Fontbonne count in the win column but no where else.  Road game tonight at DePaul will provide a slightly more difficult test.
5) Indiana State 2-1 -  The only blemish is an OT loss at Northern Illinois which the Sycs followed up with an OT win at Ball State.  A win in the early Thanksgiving Day game against #21 Iowa State would set up Indiana State for possible games against Miami and Gonzaga.
6) Illinois State 1-2 - Assuming that off the court issues have been settled, Redbirds have the horsepower to challenge for an MVC title despite another slow start.  Lee, Hawkins, and McIntosh are as good as any trio in the league so I don’t expect ISU to remain in the lower half of these rankings for long.
 
Note: at this point there’s not much to separate spots 7-9
 (but we reserved 10th for Drake)
7) Bradley 3-2 -Before the season I wanted to buy stock in Bradley, but then the Braves laid an egg at home to Delaware. Despite that, I think BU will be better than the next three teams listed.
8 ) Southern Illinois 3-2 - The highlight so far is that we got another great rant from Barry Hinson after losing at Arkansas. Maybe the Salukis can beat Minnesota on Friday and we’ll talk about the SIU basketball team instead.
9) Evansville 2-1 - Save for an opening season drubbing at Louisville, Aces and Bears appear to be in some sort of non-conference scheduling co-op. Understandable this year for a rebuilding Aces’ team, I suppose.
10) Drake 1-2 -  Another long season appears in store for the fans in the Knapp Center. Avoiding Thursday night at Arch Madness might earn Giacoletti my Coach of the Year vote.

 

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MVCfans.com users predict Wichita State will win Valley… again

 

For the fourth consecutive year, the users at MVCfans.com have chosen the Wichita State Shockers as the likely regular season champion of the Missouri Valley Conference.  Valley fans expect that Illinois State and Northern Iowa will challenge the Shockers for the top spot.


Official MVCfans.com – Predictions:
10th Place – Drake
9th Place – Evansville
8th Place – Bradley
7th Place – Loyola
6th Place – Southern Illinois
5th Place – Indiana State
4th Place – Missouri State
3rd Place – Northern Iowa
2nd Place – Illinois State
1st Place – Wichita State

 

Message board and poll results: MVCfans.com 2016-17 men’s basketball discussion