Updated MVC non-conference SOS and impact on Arch Madness probabilities

Outside of the MVC having a good day in the Bracket Busters event yesterday, the biggest news of the weekend was the impact that the games of the week had on non-conference strength of schedule. As you may recall, in the event of a two team tie where the teams split during the regular season, the next tiebreaker is non-con SOS. Heading into this week, Wichita State (66) had a seemingly insurmountable lead over Creighton (109) should the two finish the season deadlocked. The events of the weekend changed that dramatically, however as the Bluejays now own the tiebreaker despite losing at St. Mary’s. Creighton’s non-con SOS is now 48; Wichita St is 72.

Because of this potentially significant change, Hacksaw quickly reformulated the Arch Madness seeding probabilities for us tonight. It would appear that if Creighton could win at Bradley on Wednesday, the Shockers-Bluejays game on Saturday will be for the #1 seed in St. Louis.

Here are the updated probabilities (top) and weighted probabilities (bottom). Click “Read rest of entry” below for the full Valley RPI and non-conference SOS.

From MVC Associate Commissioner, Mike Kern today:

30 Wichita St. 72
41 Creighton 48
61 Indiana St. 31
72 Northern Iowa 13
116 Illinois St. 218
118 Evansville 118
152 Drake 99
167 Bradley 337
195 Southern Ill. 311
209 Missouri St. 112

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