February 19 – updated #ArchMadness seeding probabilities

With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The current order for the NC SOS tiebreaker from ESPN is: UNI 28, WSU 46, MSU 154, ISU-Red 158, DU 181, UE 212, ISU-Blue 223, SIU 243, BU 271, LUC 338.

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as an equally-weighted possibility. For a more realistic likelihood of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below .

Wichita State featured on the cover of this week’s Sports Illustrated

2014 Arch Madness seeding probabilities – February 16

With 20 conference games remaining, there are 1,048,576 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These charts take into account the head-to-head tiebreaker (and mini round-robin for a 3+ way tie), if this does not break the tie, it goes to the out of conference strength of schedule tiebreaker. Currently that order is what I have from ESPN (UNI 30, WSU 56, ISU-Red 157, MSU 173, DU 182, ISU-Blue 225, UE 228, SIU 241, BU 266, LUC 338).

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as a pure 50%/50% possibility. For a more realistic likelihood of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 20 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

February 13 – Updated #ArchMadness bracket projections and MVC standings

Here is your up to the minute projected MVC Tournament bracket provided by Hacksaw. When you look at the specifics, there appear to be three teams very likely to be playing on Thursday night (Loyola, Drake, Evansville), but there is a logjam directly above and one of those teams will also likely be joining them.

 


You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

ESPN puts chances of Wichita St finishing regular season unbeaten at 79.4%

On a game by game basis, ESPN believes that Wichita State has no worse than a 93.3% chance to win each game individually – the most likely loss coming at Bradley. They give the Shockers a 79.4% chance to win out.

February 7 – Updated MVC Standings and projected #ArchMadness seeds

Here are Hacksaw’s updated MVC standings and projected #ArchMadness seeds after 11 conference games.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

Missouri Valley Conference Power Rankings – Updated February 2

After Indiana State lost at SIU on Wednesday night, I tweeted that Wichita State had just clinched the MVC title. Yes, I realize it was a bit too early to make that prediction, but does anyone believe that Wichita State will lose two games in conference play? I didn’t think so. What’s even more interesting is that despite what most would call that “bad loss” in Carbondale, the Sycamores appear almost certain to be the #2 seed at Arch Madness after winning in Cedar Falls on Saturday. In fact, the Shockers and Sycamores are the only two Valley teams above .500 in league play. And that is exactly what makes trying to separate teams 3-10 almost impossible in this version of the MVC Power Rankings.

Here are my updated MVC Power Rankings:

MVC Power Rankings

1) Wichita State 23-0, 10-0 -Shockers muddled through wins over Loyola and Evansville and seem to have all but locked up regular season MVC title already.
2) Indiana State 17-5, 8-2 - Any at large chance that existed for the Sycs washed away after a 79-60 drubbing in Carbondale. Yet, Indiana State remains a clear #2 in the MVC.
3) Missouri State 15-7, 5-5 - Winners of three out of four (all at home), the Bears move up to their highest rating of the year. Road games at UE and SIU await.
4) Illinois State 12-10, 5-5- Very little separates the Redbirds and Panthers right now. The first meeting between the two will be Wednesday night in Normal.
5) Northern Iowa 11-11, 5-5 – Frankly, I expected more out of UNI so far. Where has the team that took Iowa State to OT and drilled VCU been?
6) Bradley 9-14, 4-6 – Walt Lemon Jr continues to be an enigma, but Braves are 4-1 in Valley play at home and that’s good enough for a bump this week.
7) Southern Illinois 8-15, 4-6 – Salukis are on a two game winning streak including what may have been the most surprising win in conference play when they dominated Indiana State last week.
8 ) Drake 12-10, 3-7 – Bulldogs posted a solid win over Missouri State this past week, but it would be a minor surprise to avoid Thursday night in St. Louis.
9) Loyola 8-14, 3-7- The wins haven’t come yet, but signs of progress are appearing. Milton Doyle (my FOY pick) looks like a future All-MVC player.
10) Evansville 10-13, 3-7 – It’s going to be almost impossible to keep DJ Balentine off the 1st team All-MVC team, but the Aces haven’t given him much support in the post-Colt era.

 

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

#ArchMadness seedings if the MVC season ended today

At the halfway point in the conference season, here are your projected Arch Madness seeds if the season ended today.

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

January 25 – Updated MVC Standings and Arch Madness seeds if the season ended today

One of the more popular features of our site is the annual Arch Madness projections and probabilities data that is prepared by our good friend, Hacksaw. Even though the conference season is less than half way completed, we are happy to to present the initial version of what the Arch Madness seeds would be if the season ended today. The first of the official probabilities charts will be posted Sunday evening or Monday morning (Feb 16-17) when there are 20 conference games remaining.


 

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board

Missouri State’s Marcus Marshall to undergo knee surgery, could miss significant time

Adding to the pain of Missouri State’s loss to #6 Wichita State in overtime on Saturday was news on Tuesday that star guard Marcus Marshall sustained a knee injury in the extra period.  The injury to last year’s Missouri Valley Conference freshman of the year was an apparent tear to the meniscus in his right knee.  Surgery will be performed on Wednesday.

Missouri State head coach Paul Lusk said more will be known about Marshall’s prognosis following surgery.  It is expected that he could miss a significant portion of the rest of the men’s basketball season.

 

You can discuss this and more on the MVCfans.com Message Board