Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[CaliJay]

I don't really like how this is sorting out for Creighton. There is a strong possibility of CU have 3 of the 4 teams that beat them on their side of the bracket (MSU, UNI, and Evansville). ILST and UNI both losing this week is not what I wanted to see. However, I think that the 7 seed is going to be pretty tough no matter what (or at least compared to the 7 seed in previous years).

Look for UNI to win their last two games and stay out of Thursday. Either way, I agree that the 7 seed will be more dangerous than probably ever before. That being said, they play at 8:35 PM the night before, that could be a pretty late night and a short turn-around against a fresh team. Very tough for play-in teams to beat the top two seeds.

[havoc]

Look for UNI to win their last two games and stay out of Thursday. Either way, I agree that the 7 seed will be more dangerous than probably ever before. That being said, they play at 8:35 PM the night before, that could be a pretty late night and a short turn-around against a fresh team. Very tough for play-in teams to beat the top two seeds.

I see Drake, Illinois State, and UE all splitting their remaining games and UNI winning out for a 4 way tie for 4th with all teams being 3-3 against each other. I believe non-con SOS would put the seedings as

4. UNI
5. UE
6. Drake
7. Illinois State

[ShockValue]

Would love to see Drake and Illinois St as the 4-5 game. Things look very favorable for WSU at the moment.

[BirdmanBB]

Look for UNI to win their last two games and stay out of Thursday. Either way, I agree that the 7 seed will be more dangerous than probably ever before. That being said, they play at 8:35 PM the night before, that could be a pretty late night and a short turn-around against a fresh team. Very tough for play-in teams to beat the top two seeds.

I see Drake, Illinois State, and UE all splitting their remaining games and UNI winning out for a 4 way tie for 4th with all teams being 3-3 against each other. I believe non-con SOS would put the seedings as

4. UNI
5. UE
6. Drake
7. Illinois State

If ISU goes from potentially 3rd place with a couple weeks left to 7th because of non-con SOS I think our fanbase is going to explode and demand Janks head. No thursday team has ever won the valley tourney, but on the bright side we would get a nice warmup against Bradley.

[Red]

Would love to see Drake and Illinois St as the 4-5 game. Things look very favorable for WSU at the moment.

I'm guessing everyone wants to avoid the 4-5 game with Wichita State waiting. I'd like to us to be the 6 and beat Missouri State for the third time with Creighton or UNI up next.

[MSUBear42]

Would love to see Drake and Illinois St as the 4-5 game. Things look very favorable for WSU at the moment.

I'm guessing everyone wants to avoid the 4-5 game with Wichita State waiting. I'd like to us to be the 6 and beat Missouri State for the third time with Creighton or UNI up next.

We obviously don't want to see ILSU, but I doubt we would lose a 3rd

[MVCfans]

Just the one game tonight. The updated probabilities for Arch Madness have been posted:

link: The MVC Report - Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[Moose39]

Can you explain the difference between the first and second percentage chart?

[MSUDuo]

Can you explain the difference between the first and second percentage chart?

The first is using pure whole numbers. So, out of 512 different scenarios remaining, WSU has 512 chances to finish 1st; or 100% (which is down in the 2nd graph)

MSU has 326 chances out of 512 to finish 3rd, or a 64% chance

How that helped

[Moose39]

Can you explain the difference between the first and second percentage chart?

The first is using pure whole numbers. So, out of 512 different scenarios remaining, WSU has 512 chances to finish 1st; or 100% (which is down in the 2nd graph)

MSU has 326 chances out of 512 to finish 3rd, or a 64% chance

How that helped

I mean I see four graphs. Two of which have percentages for seeding probability. Like the first one has MSU at 64% of finishing third. I get that one. But the bottom one?